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Febrero de 2015
Synthetic earthquake catalogs simulating seismic activity in the Corinth Gulf, Greece, fault system
Authors: Rodolfo Console, Roberto Carluccio et al
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The characteristic earthquake hypothesis is the basis of time-dependent modeling of earthquake recurrence on major faults. However, the characteristic earthquake hypothesis is not strongly supported by observational data. Few fault segments have long historical or paleoseismic records of individually dated ruptures, and when data and parameter uncertainties are allowed for, the form of the recurrence distribution is difficult to establish. This is the case, for instance, of the Corinth Gulf Fault System (CGFS), for which documents about strong earthquakes exist for at least 2000 years, although they can be considered complete for

M?=?6.0 only for the latest 300?years, during which only few characteristic earthquakes are reported for individual fault segments. The use of a physics-based earthquake simulator has allowed the production of catalogs lasting 100,000?years and containing more than 500,000 events of magnitudes?=?4.0. The main features of our simulation algorithm are (1) an average slip rate released by earthquakes for every single segment in the investigated fault system, (2) heuristic procedures for rupture growth and stop, leading to a self-organized earthquake magnitude distribution, (3) the interaction between earthquake sources, and (4) the effect of minor earthquakes in redistributing stress. The application of our simulation algorithm to the CGFS has shown realistic features in time, space, and magnitude behavior of the seismicity. These features include long-term periodicity of strong earthquakes, short-term clustering of both strong and smaller events, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the higher-magnitude range.

Enero de 2015
Absolute gravity change associated with magma mass movement in the conduit of Asama Volcano (Central Japan), revealed by physical modeling of hydrological gravity disturbances
Authors: Takahito Kazama, Shuhei Okubo et al
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The gravity signal originating from magma mass movement in a volcanic conduit is retrieved from the hydrologically disturbed absolute gravity data obtained at Asama Volcano (Central Japan) in 2004, using a three-dimensional hydrological model. We improve the hydrological model of the previous study using realistic soil parameters and boundary conditions, to better estimate the spatiotemporal land-water distributions and the consequent hydrological gravity disturbances. The newly estimated gravity disturbances agree with the absolute gravity values observed by FG5 gravimeters in 2004–2009 within about 2.6

miligal, by additionally accounting for the excess discharge of groundwater mass associated with a sloping impermeable surface below the discharge area. After the gravity disturbance of 20 μgal amplitude is subtracted from the absolute gravity data observed during the 2004 eruptive event, the gravity residual of 5 μgal amplitude shows a significant decrease in synchronization with eruptions, because the ascending magma mass in the conduit affects the upward attraction force to the gravimeters installed on the flank of Asama Volcano. The magma head altitude, to which the residual gravity is converted assuming a homogeneous linear density in the conduit, shows a comprehensive agreement of the time variation in the magma head with those in other volcanic observations, such as gas emission rate and earthquake frequency. By correcting the hydrological gravity disturbances using this hydrological model and simultaneously obtained meteorological data in real time, spatiotemporal variations in the magma mass can be instantaneously monitored at Asama Volcano, even before eruptions during future volcanic events.

Enero de 2015
A damage model for volcanic edifices: Implications for edifice strength, magma pressure, and eruptive processes
Authors: Aurore Carrier, Jean-Luc Got et al
Link: Click here

Monitoring of large basaltic volcanoes, such as Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island, France), has revealed preeruptive accelerations in surface displacements and seismicity rate over a period of between 1 h and several weeks before magma reaches the surface. Such eruptions are attributed to ruptures of pressurized magma reservoirs. Elastic models used to describe surface deformation would assume that accelerations in surface deformation are due to increases in reservoir pressure. This assumption requires changes in magma or pressure conditions at the base of the magma feeding

system that are unrealistic over the observed timescale. Another possible cause for these accelerations is magma pressure in the reservoir weakening the volcanic edifice. In the present study, we modeled such weakening by progressive damage to an initially elastic edifice. We used an incremental damage model, with seismicity as a damage variable with daily increments. Elastic moduli decrease linearly with each damage increment. Applied to an initially elastic edifice with constant pressure at the base of the system, this damage model reproduces surface displacement accelerations quite well when damage is sufficient. Process dynamics is controlled by the damage parameter, taken as the ratio between the incremental rupture surface and the surface to be ruptured. In this case, edifice strength and magma reservoir pressure decrease with decreasing elastic moduli, whereas surface displacement accelerates. We discuss the consequences of pressure decreases in magma reservoirs.

Enero de 2015
Teaming up against tsunamis
Author: Elisabeth Pain
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The speakers for the TEDxBrussels event in December were selected for their audacity: They mapped their own way instead of sticking to well-trod paths. One of them was Tiziana Rossetto, a professor of earthquake engineering at University College London (UCL) in the United Kingdom. Rossetto's research aims to understand how tsunamis behave as they sweep ashore and how to make coastal infrastructure more resistant to their devastating effects. She founded the Earthquake and People Interaction Centre at UCL, which takes a multidisciplinary approach to investigating risks and mitigating damage. This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.
Q:What drew you to earthquake engineering?
A:It's such a new science. Everything you do could be used and save lives. It really drives home the importance of what you're doing when you see people suffering and how these events change lives so completely.
Q:What personal qualities have made your career possible?
A:An advantage I have is having an open mind and being humble enough to realize that you can't be an expert in everything. As problems become bigger, especially in the case of natural disasters, we have to work more with other scientists, other engineering groups, but also with the social sciences—psychologists, disaster managers, historians—and statisticians. I find that the border of these disciplines is where innovation is happening.
Q:Have you experienced self-doubt?
A:Enormous, enormous self-doubt. But I think that's where the collaboration comes in. It's realizing where your limitations are and saying,

“I need help,” enlisting people and enthusing them, getting them interested in collaborating with you and solving the problem together, respecting that they know a lot more than you do in their fields.
Q:How do you convince people to collaborate?
A:You sit them down and talk at them for ages and ages until they give in; that's my tactic. And offer them lots of coffee and maybe a croissant. I just try to show them how important it really is. I think they convince themselves once they start to look into the area and see the gaping knowledge gaps. It's quite a large motivation in itself to say, “I could do something to fill this gap.”
Q:How did you set up your first collaboration?
A:When you go to earthquakes, you see that the risk depends on so much more than just the structures and buildings. Cultural habits play such an important role in how people live in their houses. Most often, the structural solutions are there, and the communities know the hazard, yet they do not prepare, so there must be something related to their perception of the risk. So I went to speak to a psychologist in my university, and I said, “Why don't they prepare?” And she answered, “I don't know. Let's look at it together.” So we started to explore the field, and now we're coming up with some really interesting results.
Q:You have a young family. How do you manage?
A:Yes. I have two small children, 4 years old and 6 months. I think it's just being organized and making sure you have the help you need and that you don't promise too much and then don't deliver. I also think being a woman and having a family now, compared to the past, is much more accepted in academia and in engineering. I have a very supportive department. Even though it's a civil engineering department, half the staff members are women, which is I think quite unique.
Q:Any advice for young scientists?
A:Don't be scared to be different. I think difference is actually a strength. And be tenacious—really, don't give up. Just keep going for your dreams.

Enero de 2015
Tsunami surges around the Hawaiian Islands from the 1 April 2014 North Chile Mw 8.1 earthquake
Authors: Yefei Bai, Kwok Fai Cheung et al
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The 1 April 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake ruptured a segment of the megathrust fault offshore of northern Chile and generated a moderate-size tsunami across the Pacific. Tide gauges in Hawaii recorded over 1 m of wave height despite the long distance from the source and position away from the main radiated energy lobe. Inversion of global teleseismic body waves

combined with forward modeling of the tsunami at four near-field DART stations arrives iteratively at a self-consistent finite-fault model with very compact dimensions. The slip distribution produces a NNE-SSW trending seafloor uplift patch that enhances the tsunami directionality in the WNW, resulting in good matches to observed DART and tide gauge records around the Hawaiian Islands. The relatively large waves at selected locations in Hawaii can be attributed to a combination of the spatial slip distribution and the resulting short-period waves that triggered localized resonance over the insular shelves. This event highlights the importance of characterizing detailed slip distributions in analysis or forecasting of tsunamis even for a compact source

Enero de 2015
The seismic structure beneath the Yellowstone Volcano Field from ambient seismic noise
Authors: Kevin J. Seats and Jesse F. Lawrence
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We evaluate Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion (5–40 s) around the Yellowstone Volcano Field with ambient noise tomography, measured from vertical component noise correlation functions. We include broadband data from 239 seismic stations (1999–2012), including

USArray's Transportable Array and the Noise Observatory for Imaging the Subsurface beneath Yellowstone (NOISY). Short-period (<13 s) group velocity anomalies are imaged for the Bighorn Basin (~25% slow) and Range (~20% fast), and the Yellowstone Plateau (~10% fast). Beneath the Yellowstone caldera, Rayleigh wave group velocities are ~25% slower than the regional average with slow anomalies (<−15%) observed from 5 to 24 s. These values are consistent with a magmatic body being heated from below by an underlying plume.

Enero de 2015
Man-induced low-frequency seismic events in Italy
Authors: Diana Latorre, Alessandro Amato et al
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Unconventional seismic events in Italy are detected by scanning three years of continuous waveforms recorded by the Italian National Seismic Network. Cross correlation of signal templates with continuous seismic records has evidenced unusual events with similar low-frequency characteristics in several Italian regions. Spectral analysis and spatiotemporal

distribution of these events, some of which are previously interpreted as tectonic long-period transients, suggest that they are not natural, but produced by huge cement factories. Since there are at least 57 full-cycle cement plants operating in Italy, each affecting areas of about 1250 to 2800 km2, we argue that significant portions of the Italian territory (23% to 51%) can be affected by this man-made noise. Seismic noise analyses, such as those used for microzonation or crustal structure investigations, as well as data mining techniques used to retrieve anomalous transient signals, should thus take into account this peculiar and pervasive source of seismic waves.

Enero de 2015
Quantifying the energy dissipation of overriding plate deformation in three-dimensional subduction models
Authors: Zhihao Chen, Wouter P. Schellart et al
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In a subduction system the force and the energy required to deform the overriding plate are generally thought to come from the negative buoyancy of the subducted slab and its potential energy, respectively. Such deformation might involve extension and back-arc basin formation or shortening and mountain building. How much of the slab's potential energy is consumed during overriding plate deformation remains unknown. In this work, we present dynamic three-dimensional laboratory experiments of progressive subduction with an overriding plate to quantify the force (FOPD) that drives overriding plate deformation

and the associated energy dissipation rate (ΦOPD), and we compare them with the negative buoyancy (FBU) of the subducted slab and its total potential energy release rate (ΦBU), respectively. We varied the viscosity ratio between the plates and the sublithospheric upper mantle with ηSP/ηUM = 157–560 and the thickness of the overriding plate with TOP = 0.5–2.5 cm (scaling to 25–125 km in nature). The results show that FOPD/FBU has average values of 0.5–2.0%, with a maximum of 5.3%, and ΦOPD/ΦBU has average values of 0.05–0.30%, with a maximum of 0.41%. The results indicate that only a small portion of the negative buoyancy of the slab and its potential energy are used to deform the overriding plate. Our models also suggest that the force required to deform the overriding plate is of comparable magnitude as the ridge push force. Furthermore, we show that in subduction models with an overriding plate bending dissipation at the subduction zone hinge remains low (3–15% during steady state subduction).

Enero de 2015
A damage model for volcanic edifices: Implications for edifice strength, magma pressure, and eruptive processes
Authors: Aurore Carrier, Jean-Luc Got et al
Link: Click here

Monitoring of large basaltic volcanoes, such as Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island, France), has revealed preeruptive accelerations in surface displacements and seismicity rate over a period of between 1 h and several weeks before magma reaches the surface. Such eruptions are attributed to ruptures of pressurized magma reservoirs. Elastic models used to describe surface deformation would assume that accelerations in surface deformation are due to increases in reservoir pressure. This assumption requires changes in magma or pressure conditions at the base of the magma feeding

system that are unrealistic over the observed timescale. Another possible cause for these accelerations is magma pressure in the reservoir weakening the volcanic edifice. In the present study, we modeled such weakening by progressive damage to an initially elastic edifice. We used an incremental damage model, with seismicity as a damage variable with daily increments. Elastic moduli decrease linearly with each damage increment. Applied to an initially elastic edifice with constant pressure at the base of the system, this damage model reproduces surface displacement accelerations quite well when damage is sufficient. Process dynamics is controlled by the damage parameter, taken as the ratio between the incremental rupture surface and the surface to be ruptured. In this case, edifice strength and magma reservoir pressure decrease with decreasing elastic moduli, whereas surface displacement accelerates. We discuss the consequences of pressure decreases in magma reservoirs.

Enero de 2015
Sondaje de grandes terremotos intraplaca en el flanco oeste de los Andes
Autores: G. Vargas, Y. Klingeret al
Link: Click aquí

La estimación del potencial de ocurrencia de los grandes terremotos en las fallas que tienen una muy baja rapidez de deslizamiento en el interior de los continentes, lejos de los bordes de las placas, es posible sólo si se dispone del registro geológico a largo plazo. Sin embargo, nuestro conocimiento de los grandes terremotos aparece incompleto para las fallas de empuje en las montañas, tales como aquellas que circundan al Tibet y Los Andes. Nosotros presentamos un estudio paleosísmico de un escarpe de falla prominente en el flanco oeste de los Andes, en Santiago de Chile. La evidencia demuestra una falla con desplazamiento continuo de unos ~ 5 m por cada sismo importante. Con dos grandes rupturas ocurridas hace 17-19 mil años, y el último evento ocurrido hace unos 8 mil años, la falla parece haber madurado lo suficiente como para generar otro terremoto (de magnitud de momento igual a Mw 7.5). Estos resultados enfatizan el potencial peligro de las fallas continentales intraplacas, particularmente aquellas sociadas con frentes montañosos jóvenes.

Enero de 2015
Probing large intraplate earthquakes at the west flank of the Andes
Authors: G. Vargas, Y. Klinger et al
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Estimating the potential for the occurrence of large earthquakes on slow-slip-rate faults in continental interiors, away from plate boundaries, is possible only if the long-term geological record of past events is available. However, our knowledge of strong earthquakes appears to be incomplete for thrust faults flanking large actively growing mountain ranges, such as those surrounding Tibet and the Andes Mountains. We present a paleoseismic study of a prominent fault scarp at the west flank of the Andes in Santiago, Chile. The evidence demonstrates recurrent faulting with displacement of ~5 m in each event. With two large earthquake ruptures within the past 17–19 k.y., and the last event occurring ~8 k.y. ago, the fault appears to be ripe for another large earthquake (moment magnitude, Mw 7.5). These results emphasize the potential danger of intraplate continental faults, particularly those associated with youthful mountain fronts.

Enero de 2015
The birth of the geological map
Author: Tom Sharpe
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In 1815, William Smith, an English canal surveyor and land drainer, provided the young science of geology with the first true geological map of an entire country (see the first figure). Two hundred years on, Smith's map has become an icon of Earth science, and the basic principles he developed and applied are still used in interpreting rock sequences and making geological maps.
Smith's map is remarkable for many reasons. It was

ambitious in its scale and scope, covering the whole of England, Wales, and southern Scotland, an area of more than 175,000 km2 (larger than Washington state). It was constructed by the application of Smith's own discovery that the strata of southern Britain are arranged in a regular sequence and that each rock layer contains distinctive and diagnostic fossils. It was big, measuring about 2.6 m by 1.8 m. It was colorful, with each color carefully chosen for its similarity to that of the rocks it represented. And it was the work of a single individual with a limited rural education, the son of a village blacksmith, working independently outside of the developing structure of the recently formed (and gentlemanly) Geological Society of London (...)

Enero de 2015
The role of lithological layering and pore pressure on fluid-induced microseismicity
Authors: V. Roche and M. van der Baan
Link: Click here

The success of hydraulic fracturing treatments is often judged by the shape and size of the resulting microseismic cloud. However, it is challenging to predict the anticipated microseismic cloud prior to treatment. We use geomechanical modeling to predict the distribution of the microseismicity prior to the hydraulic fracture treatment. We analyze the likelihood of tensile and shear failure due to 1-D variations in local stresses and rock strengths, induced by layering and pore pressure, for two field cases. The deviation in the local stresses from the regional stress field is induced by vertical variations in stiffness. This promotes failure of the stronger layers instead of the weaker ones since the stronger

layers can become essentially load-bearing. . The simulations and field studies show that: (1) microseismic events tend to locate preferentially where layers reach tensile failure due to fluid injection, and the number of events tends to decrease in layers that do not reach tensile failure; (2) shear initiation can occur in different layers from those failing in tension, thereby creating additional fluid migration paths; (3) reactivation of preexisting fractures may occur due to fluid migration, even if their orientations are unfavorable. Numerical modeling is a significant aid in understanding the interplay of regional and local stresses and associated in situ failure due to variations in rock strength, pore pressure and stiffnesses. In a wider perspective, it gives fundamental insights into the understanding of earthquakes and fault localization, the mechanisms of fracture development, the role of fractures on fluid circulation and on the in in-situ stress field.

Enero de 2015
Lunar Surface Gravimeter as a Lunar Seismometer: Investigation of a New Source of Seismic Information on the Moon
Authors: Taichi Kawamura, Naoki Kobayashi et al
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Lunar seismology has always suffered from the limited number of seismic stations and limited coverage of the seismic network. Additional seismic data are necessary to probe the lunar interior in depth. Instead of a costly new deployment of seismometers, the aim of this study is to investigate the possibility of using the Apollo 17 Lunar Surface Gravimeter (LSG) as a lunar seismometer. The LSG was designed to detect gravitational waves (associated to change in the curvature of spacetime) and tidal ground motion on the Moon, but the data were not investigated for seismic use partially because of a malfunction of the instrument. We first

evaluated the influence of the malfunction through comparison with other Apollo seismic data and found that the effect of the malfunction is small, and the LSG detected seismic signals in a manner that was consistent with those of the other Apollo seismometers. Then we carried out source location with the additional station of the LSG. We relocated previously located deep moonquake nests to evaluate the influence of the LSG data, which are generally noisier than other Apollo seismic data. Then we located deep moonquake nests that were previously un-locatable. Forty deep moonquake nests were examined, and we located five new nests. One newly located nest, A284, was most likely to be located on the farside. This series of analyses indicates that the LSG functioned as a lunar seismometer, and that its data are useful for improving seismic analyses with the previous seismic data set of the Moon.

Enero de 2015
Effects of the postperovskite phase change on the observed geoid
Authors: M. Shahraki, H. Schmeling , et al
Link: Click here

In the lowermost mantle, seismic velocity variations beneath Pacific margins have been related to the perovskite to postperovskite (pPv) phase transition. We investigate the influence of this phase transformation on the geoid using 3-D spherical mantle circulation models based on a seismic tomography model and strong lateral viscosity

variations in the lower mantle. We demonstrate that the geoid anomalies are strongly affected by the presence of pPv because of phase-dependent viscosity changes relative to the surrounding mantle. Whereas geoid heights above subduction zones are increased for high-viscosity pPv, the presence of weak pPv reduces them, thereby improving the fit to the observed geoid. An investigation using two different tomography models, different pPv density contrasts, and the presence or absence of a global thermal boundary layer and of lateral viscosity variations in the lower mantle demonstrates the various effects of weak pPv on the geoid.

Enero de 2015
Earthquake nucleation in intact or healed rocks
Authors: Nicolas Brantutand Robert C. Viesca
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Earthquakes are generated because faults lose strength with increasing slip and slip rate. Among the simplest representations of slip-dependent strength is the linear slip-weakening model, characterized by a linear drop to a residual friction. However, healed fault rocks often exhibit some slip strengthening before the onset of weakening. Here we investigate the effect of such a slip-hardening phase on the initial growth of a slip patch and on the nucleation of rupture instabilities. We assume a piecewise linear strength versus slip constitutive relation. We compute stress and slip distributions for in-plane or antiplane rupture configurations in response to an increasing, locally peaked (parabolic

with curvature κ) stress profile. In contrast with the strictly linear slip-weakening case, our calculations show that the curvature of the loading profile and the level of background stress strongly influence the nucleation size. Even for small amounts of slip hardening, we find that the critical nucleation size scales with () for (), i.e., crack growth remains stable up to very large crack sizes for sufficiently smooth loading profiles. Likewise, when the background stress τb is very close to the initial strength τc, the critical crack size scales with (). An eigenvalue analysis shows that the nucleation length increases as the proportion of the crack undergoing slip hardening increases, irrespective of the details of the loading profile. Overall, our results indicate that earthquake nucleation sizes can significantly increase due to slip hardening (e.g., in healed fault rocks), especially when the background loading is smooth.

Enero de 2015
Dinámica de un gran sistema de magma riolítico y fuera del reposo en Laguna del Maule, sur de los Andes, Chile
Autores: Brad S. Singer, Nathan L. Andersen, et al
Link: Click aquí

as erupciones explosivas de los sistemas de magma riolítico de gran volumen son comunes en el registro geológico y plantean una grave amenaza potencial a la sociedad. A diferencia de otros desastres naturales, como terremotos y tsunamis, un gran volcán riolítico puede proporcionar señales de peligro mucho antes de que se produzca una erupción de formación de caldera . Sin embargo, estos signos- y lo que implican sobre la dinámica corteza/magma - no se conocen bien. Esto se debe a que hemos aprendido cómo se forman los sistemas, como crecen y como entran en erupción principalmente a partir del estudio de las tobas del flujo de cenizas depositadas hace decenas a cientos de miles de años atrás (o más), o a partir de la obtención de imágenes geofísicas de las partes que no han erupcionado de los embalses ubicados por debajo de la asociada calderas. El campo volcánico en Laguna del Maule, Chile, incluye una concentración inusualmente grande y reciente de erupciones siliceas. Desde el año 2007 la corteza se ha inflando a un ritmo asombroso de al menos 25 cm / año. Esta oportunidad única para investigar la dinámica de un gran sistema riolítico al tiempo que la migración del magma, el crecimiento del embalse, y la deformación de la corteza terrestre están activamente en curso ha estimulado una nueva colaboración internacional. Los resultados hasta el momento nos llevan a la hipótesis de que las rejillas de ventilación siliceas han alcanzado una extensa capa pobre en cristales y la fusión riolítica que comenzó a formarse encima de una zona de mezcla magmática que fue establecido por ca. 20 ka con una nueva fase de erupciones riolítica durante el Holoceno. El modelado de la deformación de la superficie, los datos magnetotelúricos, y los cambios de la gravedad sugieren que la intrusión magmática se encuentra a una profundidad de ~ 5 km. La siguiente fase de esta investigación pretende ampliar los conjuntos de datos geofísicos y geoquímicos y utilizar estas observaciones en los modelos numéricos de dinámica de sistemas magmáticos.

Enero de 2015
Dynamics of a large, restless, rhyolitic magma system at Laguna del Maule, southern Andes, Chile

Authors: Brad S. Singer, Nathan L. Andersen, et al
Link: Click here

Explosive eruptions of large-volume rhyolitic magma systems are common in the geologic record and pose a major potential threat to society. Unlike other natural hazards, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, a large rhyolitic volcano may provide warning signs long before a caldera-forming eruption occurs. Yet, these signs—and what they imply about magma-crust dynamics—are not well known. This is because we have learned how these systems form, grow, and erupt mainly from the study of ash flow tuffs deposited tens to hundreds of thousands of years ago or more, or from the geophysical imaging of the unerupted portions of the reservoirs beneath the associated calderas. The Laguna del Maule Volcanic Field, Chile, includes an unusually large and recent concentration of silicic eruptions. Since 2007, the crust there has been inflating at an astonishing rate of at least 25 cm/yr. This unique opportunity to investigate the dynamics of a large rhyolitic system while magma migration, reservoir growth, and crustal deformation are actively under way is stimulating a new international collaboration. Findings thus far lead to the hypothesis that the silicic vents have tapped an extensive layer of crystal-poor, rhyolitic melt that began to form atop a magmatic mush zone that was established by ca. 20 ka with a renewed phase of rhyolite eruptions during the Holocene. Modeling of surface deformation, magnetotelluric data, and gravity changes suggest that magma is currently intruding at a depth of ~5 km. The next phase of this investigation seeks to enlarge the sets of geophysical and geochemical data and to use these observations in numerical models of system dynamics.

Enero de 2015
Quantifying the economic importance of irrigation water reuse in a Chilean watershed using an integrated agent-based model
Authors: R. T. Arnold, Christian Troost et al
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Irrigation with surface water enables Chilean agricultural producers to generate one of the country's most important economic exports. The Chilean water code established tradable water rights as a mechanism to allocate water amongst farmers and other water-use sectors. It remains contested whether this mechanism is effective and many authors have raised equity concerns regarding its impact on water users. For example, speculative hoarding of water rights in expectations of their increasing value has been described. This

paper demonstrates how farmers can hoard water rights as a risk management strategy for variable water supply, for example due to the cycles of El Niño or as consequence of climate change. While farmers with insufficient water rights can rely on unclaimed water during conditions of normal water availability, drought years over-proportionally impact on their supply of irrigation water and thereby farm profitability.
This study uses a simulation model that consists of a hydrological balance model component and a multi-agent farm decision and production component. Both model components are parameterized with empirical data, while uncertain parameters are calibrated. The study demonstrates a thorough quantification of parameter uncertainty, using global sensitivity analysis and multiple behavioral parameter scenarios.

Enero de 2015
Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout
Authors: Jacopo Selva, Antonio Costa et al
Link: Click here

During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any

potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly evolving crisis, accurately accounting for and propagating all uncertainties and enabling rational decision making under uncertainty.

Enero de 2015
Modeling and mitigating natural hazards: Stationarity is immortal!
Authors: Alberto Montanari and Demetris Koutsoyiannis
Link: Click here

Environmental change is a reason of relevant concern as it is occurring at an unprecedented pace and might increase natural hazards. Moreover, it is deemed to imply a reduced representativity of past experience and data on extreme hydroclimatic events. The latter concern has been epitomized by the statement that “stationarity is dead.” Setting up policies for mitigating natural hazards, including those triggered by floods and droughts, is an urgent priority in many countries, which implies practical activities of management, engineering design, and

construction. These latter necessarily need to be properly informed, and therefore, the research question on the value of past data is extremely important. We herein argue that there are mechanisms in hydrological systems that are time invariant, which may need to be interpreted through data inference. In particular, hydrological predictions are based on assumptions which should include stationarity. In fact, any hydrological model, including deterministic and nonstationary approaches, is affected by uncertainty and therefore should include a random component that is stationary. Given that an unnecessary resort to nonstationarity may imply a reduction of predictive capabilities, a pragmatic approach, based on the exploitation of past experience and data is a necessary prerequisite for setting up mitigation policies for environmental risk.

Enero de 2015
Quake clamps down on slow slip
Authors: Laura M. Wallace, Noel Bartlow et al
Link: Click here

Using continuous GPS (cGPS) data from the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand, we show for the first time that stress changes induced by a local earthquake can arrest an ongoing slow slip event (SSE). The cGPS data show that the slip rate in the northern portion of the 2013/2014 Kapiti SSE decreased abruptly following a nearby intraslab

earthquake. We suggest that deceleration of the Kapiti SSE in early 2014 occurred due to a tenfold increase in the normal stress relative to shear stress in the SSE source, induced by the nearby Mw 6.3 earthquake, consistent with expectations of rate and state friction. Our observation of an abrupt halting/slowing of the SSE in response to stress changes imposed by a local earthquake has implications for the strength of fault zones hosting SSEs and supports the premise that static stress changes are an important ingredient in triggering (or delaying) fault slip.

Diciembre de 2014
New Proposed Drilling at Surtsey Volcano, Iceland
Author: Marie D. Jackson
Link: Click here

Surtsey, an isolated oceanic island and a World Heritage Site of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, is a uniquely well-documented natural laboratory for investigating

processes of rift zone volcanism, hydrothermal alteration of basaltic tephra, and biological colonization and succession in surface and subsurface pyroclastic deposits. Deposits from Surtsey's eruptions from 1963 to 1967 were first explored via a 181-meter hole drilled in 1979 by the U.S. Geological Survey and Icelandic Museum of Natural History.

Diciembre de 2014
Buried Object Detection by Means of a Lp Banach-Space Inversion Procedure
Authors: Claudio Estatico, Alessandro Fedeli et al
Link: Click here

Electromagnetic inspection techniques are becoming powerful tools for buried object detection and subsurface prospection in several applicative fields, such as civil engineering and archeology. However, the nonlinearity and ill-posedness of the underlying inverse problem make the development

of efficient imaging techniques a very challenging task. In the present paper, an algorithm based on a regularizing approach in Lp Banach spaces is proposed for tackling such problems. The effectiveness of the approach is verified by means of numerical simulations in a noisy environment, aimed at evaluating the reconstruction capabilities with respect to the choice of several model parameters. The reported results show that, for small targets, the use of Lp Banach spaces with 1<p<2 allows to obtain a better localization of different buried scatterers.

Diciembre de 2014
A friction to flow constitutive law and its application to a 2-D modeling of earthquakes
Authors: Toshihiko Shimamoto and Hiroyuki Noda
Link: Click here

Establishment of a constitutive law from friction to high-temperature plastic flow has long been a challenging task for solving problems such as modeling earthquakes and plate interactions. Here we propose an empirical constitutive law that describes this transitional behavior using only friction and flow parameters, with good agreements with experimental data on halite shear zones. The law predicts steady state and transient behaviors, including the dependence of the shear resistance of fault on slip rate, effective normal stress, and temperature. It also predicts a change in velocity weakening to velocity strengthening with increasing temperature, similar to the changes recognized for quartz and granite gouge under hydrothermal conditions. A slight deviation from the

steady state friction law due to the involvement of plastic deformation can cause a large change in the velocity dependence. We solved seismic cycles of a fault across the lithosphere with the law using a 2-D spectral boundary integral equation method, revealing dynamic rupture extending into the aseismic zone and rich evolution of interseismic creep including slow slip prior to earthquakes. Seismic slip followed by creep is consistent with natural pseudotachylytes overprinted with mylonitic deformation. Overall fault behaviors during earthquake cycles are insensitive to transient flow parameters. The friction-to-flow law merges "Christmas tree" strength profiles of the lithosphere and rate dependency fault models used for earthquake modeling on a unified basis. Strength profiles were drawn assuming a strain rate for the flow regime, but we emphasize that stress distribution evolves reflecting the fault behavior. A fault zone model was updated based on the earthquake modeling.

Diciembre de 2014
On the earthquake predictability of fault interaction models
Authors: W. Marzocchi and D. Melini.
Link: Click here

Space-time clustering is the most striking departure of large earthquakes occurrence process from randomness. These clusters are usually described ex-post by a physics-based model in which earthquakes are triggered by Coulomb stress changes induced by other surrounding earthquakes. Notwithstanding

the popularity of this kind of modeling, its ex-ante skill in terms of earthquake predictability gain is still unknown. Here we show that even in synthetic systems that are rooted on the physics of fault interaction using the Coulomb stress changes, such a kind of modeling often does not increase significantly earthquake predictability. Earthquake predictability of a fault may increase only when the Coulomb stress change induced by a nearby earthquake is much larger than the stress changes caused by earthquakes on other faults and by the intrinsic variability of the earthquake occurrence process.

Diciembre de 2014
A methodology for near-field tsunami inundation forecasting: Application to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami
Authors: Aditya Riadi Gusman, Yuichiro Tanioka et al
Link: Click here

Existing tsunami early warning systems in the world can give either one or a combination of estimated tsunami arrival times, heights, or qualitative tsunami forecasts before the tsunami hits near-field coastlines. A future tsunami early warning system should be able to provide a reliable near-field tsunami inundation forecast on high-resolution topography within a short time period. Here we describe a new methodology for near-field tsunami inundation forecasting. In this method, a precomputed tsunami inundation and precomputed tsunami waveform database is required. After information about a tsunami source is estimated, tsunami waveforms at nearshore points can be simulated in real time. A scenario that gives the most similar tsunami waveforms is selected as the site-specific best scenario and the tsunami inundation from that scenario is selected as the tsunami inundation forecast. To test the algorithm, tsunami inundation along the Sanriku Coast is forecasted by using source

models for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake estimated from GPS, W phase, or offshore tsunami waveform data. The forecasting algorithm is capable of providing a tsunami inundation forecast that is similar to that obtained by numerical forward modeling but with remarkably smaller CPU time. The time required to forecast tsunami inundation in coastal sites from the Sendai Plain to Miyako City is approximately 3?min after information about the tsunami source is obtained. We found that the tsunami inundation forecasts from the 5?min GPS, 5?min?W phase, 10?min?W phase fault models, and 35?min tsunami source model are all reliable for tsunami early warning purposes and quantitatively match the observations well, although the latter model gives tsunami forecasts with highest overall accuracy. The required times to obtain tsunami forecast from the above four models are 8?min, 9?min, 14?min, and 39?min after the earthquake, respectively, or in other words 3?min after receiving the source model. This method can be useful in developing future tsunami forecasting systems with a capability of providing tsunami inundation forecasts for locations near the tsunami source area.

Diciembre de 2014
Spatiotemporal changes, faulting regimes, and source parameters of induced seismicity: A case study from The Geysers geothermal field
Authors: Patricia Martínez-Garzón, Grzegorz Kwiatek et al
Link: Click here

The spatiotemporal, kinematic, and source characteristics of induced seismicity occurring at different fluid injection rates are investigated to determine the predominant physical mechanisms responsible for induced seismicity at the northwestern part of The Geysers geothermal field, California. We analyze a relocated hypocenter catalog from a seismicity cluster where significant variations of the stress tensor orientation were previously observed to correlate with injection rates. We find that these stress tensor orientation changes may be related to increased pore pressure and the corresponding changes in poroelastic stresses at reservoir depth.

Seismic events during peak injections tend to occur at greater distances from the injection well, preferentially trending parallel to the maximum horizontal stress direction. In contrast, at lower injection rates the seismicity tends to align in a different direction which suggests the presence of a local fault. During peak injection intervals, the relative contribution of strike-slip faulting mechanisms increases. Furthermore, increases in fluid injection rates also coincide with a decrease in b values. Our observations suggest that regardless of the injection stage, most of the induced seismicity results from thermal fracturing of the reservoir rock. However, during peak injection intervals, the increase in pore pressure may likewise be responsible for the induced seismicity. By estimating the thermal and hydraulic diffusivities of the reservoir, we confirm that the characteristic diffusion length for pore pressure is much greater than the corresponding length scale for temperature and also more consistent with the spatial extent of seismicity observed during different injection rates.

Diciembre de 2014
Cooling magma model for deep volcanic long-period earthquakes
Authors: Naofumi Aso and Victor C. Tsai et al
Link: Click here

Deep long-period events (DLP events) or deep low-frequency earthquakes (deep LFEs) are deep earthquakes that radiate low-frequency seismic waves. While tectonic deep LFEs on plate boundaries are thought to be slip events, there have only been a limited number of studies on the physical mechanism of volcanic DLP events around the Moho (crust-mantle boundary) beneath volcanoes. One reasonable mechanism capable of producing their initial fractures is the effect of thermal stresses. Since ascending magma diapirs tend to stagnate near the Moho, where the vertical gradient of density is high, we suggest that cooling magma may play an important role

in volcanic DLP event occurrence. Assuming an initial thermal perturbation of 400°C within a tabular magma of half width 41 m or a cylindrical magma of 74?m radius, thermal strain rates within the intruded magma are higher than tectonic strain rates of ~10 14 s 1 and produce a total strain of 2 × 10 4. Shear brittle fractures generated by the thermal strains can produce a compensated linear vector dipole mechanism as observed and potentially also explain the harmonic seismic waveforms from an excited resonance. In our model, we predict correlation between the particular shape of the cluster and the orientation of focal mechanisms, which is partly supported by observations of Aso and Ide (2014). To assess the generality of our cooling magma model as a cause for volcanic DLP events, additional work on relocations and focal mechanisms is essential and would be important to understanding the physical processes causing volcanic DLP events.

Diciembre de 2014
Comparing foreshock characteristics and foreshock forecasting in observed and simulated earthquake catalogs
Authors: Yosihiko Ogata and Koichi Katsura et al
Link: Click here

In this paper, we compare the empirical results regarding foreshocks obtained from the Japan data with results for synthetic catalogs in order to clarify whether or not the corresponding results are consistent with the description of the seismicity by a superposition of background activity and epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models. This question is important, because it is still controversially discussed whether the nucleation process of large earthquakes is

driven by seismically cascading (ETAS type) or by aseismic accelerating processes. To explore the foreshock characteristics, we first applied the same clustering algorithms to real and synthetic catalogs and analyzed the temporal, spatial, and magnitude distributions of the selected foreshocks. Most properties are qualitatively the same in the real data and in synthetic catalogs. However, we find some quantitative differences particularly in the temporal acceleration, spatial convergence, and magnitude dependence, which also depend on the assumed synthetic catalogs. Furthermore, we calculated forecast scores based on a single-link cluster algorithm which could be appropriate for real-time applications. We find that the Japan Meteorological Agency catalog yields higher scores than all synthetic catalogs and that the ETAS models having the same magnitude sequence as the original catalog performs better (more close to the reality) than ETAS models with randomly picked magnitudes. We also find that the ETAS model that takes account of the triggering effect by small earthquakes below threshold magnitude performs more closely to the reality.

Diciembre de 2014
Tohoku-Oki earthquake caused major ionospheric disturbances at 450 km altitude over Alaska
Authors: Yu-Ming Yang, X. Meng et al
Link: Click here

Ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and atmospheric density perturbations were derived from measurements made from instruments on board the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) spacecraft. At the time of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake on 11 March 2011, the twin spacecraft were orbiting at an altitude of ~450 km over Alaska. Significant TEC fluctuations

(up to 0.6 total electron content unit (TECU; 1 TECU = 1016 el m−2), atmospheric density perturbations (~3.6 • 10−14 kg/m3), and sudden changes in GRACE acceleration (~4 • 10−8 m/s2) were observed ~8 min after the arrival of seismic and infrasound waves on the ground in Alaska, ~20 min after the Tohoku-Oki main shock at 05:46:23 UTC. The results of the three-dimensional ionospheric-thermospheric modeling and infrasound ray-tracing simulations are consistent with the arrival time and physical characteristics of the disturbances at GRACE. This is the first time that ionospheric disturbances associated with an earthquake are clearly attributable to perturbations at such high altitudes.

Diciembre de 2014
El mineral más abundante de la Tierra ya tiene, por fin, un nombre.
Autor: José Manuel Nieves - www.abc.es
Link: Click aquí

Después de más de cincuenta años de esfuerzos, y con la ayuda de un antiguo meteorito y rayos X de alta energía, un grupo de científicos de la Universidad de Las Vegas ha conseguido identificar y caracterizar por primera vez el mineral del que está hecho el 38% de nuestro planeta.


Se llama Bridgmanita en honor de su descubridor, el físico Percy Bridgman, laureado con el Nobel en 1964 y pionero en la investigación de materiales a muy altas presiones. El nuevo mineral acaba de ser aceptado por la Comisión de Nomenclatura y Clasificación de Nuevos Minerales (CNMNC), de la Asociación Mineralógica Internacional.
El camino ha sido largo y difícil, pero el geólogo Oliver Tschauner, ha conseguido por fin aclarar las condiciones en las que, en las profundidades de nuestro planeta, se forma el mineral más abundante de la Tierra, una mezcla extraordinariamente densa de silicatos, hierro y magnesio - (Mg,Fe)SiO3 - que hasta ahora había escapado a cualquier análisis científico.
Para averiguar la composición de las capas más internas de la Tierra, los investigadores necesitan someter los más variados materiales a presiones y temperaturas extremas, recreando así en laboratorio las duras condiciones que reinan en las profundidades de nuestro mundo. Durante décadas, los geólogos han creído que la recién bautizada Bridgmanita, una estructura de gran densidad, constituye cerca del 38% del total de la masa terrestre, y que la propiedades físicas y químicas de ese mineral ejercen una gran influencia en la forma en que los diferentes elementos y el calor fluyen a través del manto.
Pero dado que la Bridgmanita no logra sobrevivir en su viaje hacia la superficie, nadie hasta ahora había sido capaz de analizarla ni de probar su existencia, requisitos básicos para que un mineral sea aceptado por la Asociación Mineralógica Internacional.
La clave, en meteoritos
Para conseguir llevar a cabo ese análisis, Oliver Tschauner y su equipo decidieron recurrir a los meteoritos. De hecho, las enormes compresiones a las que sus minerales se someten durante el impacto se parecen mucho a las que esos mismos minerales deben soportar en las hostiles condiciones de las profundidades del planeta, con temperaturas de cerca de 2.100 grados y presiones que son hasta 240.000 veces superiores a las que existen al aire libre, al nivel del mar.
Otra ventaja es que, durante el impacto, la compresión sucede lo suficientemente rápido como para impedir que la Bridgmanita se deshaga, tal y como ocurre cuando trata de ascender a la superficie desde las profundidades de la Tierra y se destruye a causa del cambio de presión. Así, muchos meteoritos conservan fragmentos de Bridgmanita "congelados" en su interior. Pero hasta ahora todos los intentos por analizar esos restos en laboratorio habían terminado por estropear el mineral o, en el mejor de los casos, por arrojar resultados incompletos.
Por eso, el equipo de Tschauner decidió probar con otro sistema: Un haz de rayos X de alta energía que permitieran "penetrar" en el meteorito sin dañarlo.
El equipo examinó de esta forma una sección del meteorito Tenham, una condrita que cayó en Australia en 1979. En su interior, los gránulos de Bridgmanita eran escasos y de menos de un micrómetro (una millonésima de metro) de diámetro. Por eso los investigadores tuvieron que usar un haz de rayos enormemente condensado.
La primera muestra natural de Bridgmanita llegó llena de sorpresas. De hecho, contenía una cantidad inesperadamente alta de hierro férrico, muy superior al de las muestras sintéticas. Además, la Bridgmanita también contenía mucho más sodio que la mayoría de las muestras creadas en los laboratorios. De forma que, en conjunto, se descubrió una naturaleza química muy diferente de la que se esperaba. Algo que resultará de la máxima importancia para los estudios que se realicen en el futuro sobre rocas del manto terrestre.
Antes de este estudio, el conocimiento científico de las propiedades de la Bridgmanita se basaba únicamente en muestras sintéticas, ya que el mineral sólo permanece estable por debajo de los 660 km de profundidad, donde reinan presiones enormes. Al abandonar las profundidades de la Tierra, las presiones más bajas transforman a la Bridgmanita en minerales mucho menos densos. Algunos investigadores creen incluso que algunas de las inclusiones de ciertos diamantes son las marcas dejadas por la Bridgmanita al alterarse mientras las piedras emergían a la superficie.

Diciembre de 2014
The role of viscoelasticity in subducting plates
Authors: R. J. Farrington, L.-N. Moresi et al
Link: Click here

Subduction of tectonic plates into Earth's mantle occurs when one plate bends beneath another at convergent plate boundaries. The characteristic time of deformation at these convergent boundaries approximates the Maxwell relaxation time for olivine at lithospheric temperatures and pressures, it is therefore by definition a viscoelastic process. While this is widely acknowledged, the large-scale features of subduction can, and have been, successfully reproduced assuming the plate deforms by a viscous mechanism alone. However, the energy rates and stress profile within convergent margins are influenced by viscoelastic deformation. In this study, viscoelastic stresses have been systematically introduced into numerical models of free subduction, using both

the viscosity and shear modulus to control the Maxwell relaxation time. The introduction of an elastic deformation mechanism into subduction models produces deviations in both the stress profile and energy rates within the subduction hinge when compared to viscous only models. These variations result in an apparent viscosity that is variable throughout the length of the plate, decreasing upon approach and increasing upon leaving the hinge. At realistic Earth parameters, we show that viscoelastic stresses have a minor effect on morphology yet are less dissipative at depth and result in an energy transfer between the energy stored during bending and the energy released during unbending. We conclude that elasticity is important during both bending and unbending within the slab hinge with the resulting stress loading and energy profile indicating that slabs maintain larger deformation rates at smaller stresses during bending and retain their strength during unbending at depth.

Noviembre de 2014
Soil CO2 emissions as a proxy for heat and mass flow assessment, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand
Authors: Bloomberg S., Werner C et al
Link: Click here

The quantification of heat and mass flow between deep reservoirs and the surface is important for understanding magmatic and hydrothermal systems. Here, we use high-resolution measurement of carbon dioxide flux (?CO2) and heat flow at the surface to characterize the mass (CO2 and steam) and heat released to the atmosphere from two magma-hydrothermal systems. Our soil gas and heat flow surveys at Rotokawa and White Island in the Taup? Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, include over 3,000 direct measurements of ?CO2 and soil temperature and 60 carbon isotopic values on soil gases. Carbon dioxide flux was separated into background and

magmatic/hydrothermal populations based on the measured values and isotopic characterization. Total CO2 emission rates (?CO2) of 441 ± 84 t d- 1 and 124 ± 18 t d-1 were calculated for Rotokawa (2.9 km2) and for the crater floor at White Island (0.3 km2), respectively. The total CO2 emissions differ from previously published values by +386 t d-1 at Rotokawa and +25 t d-1 at White Island, demonstrating that earlier research underestimated emissions by 700% (Rotokawa) and 25% (White Island). These differences suggest that soil CO2 emissions facilitate more robust estimates of the thermal energy and mass flux in geothermal systems than traditional approaches. Combining the magmatic/hydrothermal-sourced CO2 emission (constrained using stable isotopes) with reservoir H2O:CO2 mass ratios and the enthalpy of evaporation, the surface expression of thermal energy release for the Rotokawa hydrothermal system (226 MWt) is 10 times greater than the White Island crater floor (22.5 MWt).

Noviembre de 2014
Fluid-induced earthquakes with variable stress drop
Authors: O. Lengliné, L. Lamourette et al

Link: Click here

The static stress drop of an earthquake, which quantifies the ratio of seismic slip to the size of the rupture, is almost constant over several orders of magnitudes. Although variations are often observed, it is difficult, however, to attribute these variations either to a well-defined phenomenon or simply to measurement uncertainty. In this study we analyze the static stress drop of earthquakes that occurred during a water circulation test in the Soultz-sous-Forêts, France, geothermal reservoir in 2010. During this circulation test, 411

earthquakes were recorded, the largest event having a magnitude MD 2.3. We show that several earthquakes in the reservoir can be combined into groups of closely located similar repeating waveforms. We infer that the amplitudes, and hence magnitudes, vary between the repeaters although the waveforms and spectra are both similar in shape. We measure similar corner frequencies for these events despite their different magnitudes, suggesting a similar rupture size. Our results imply that events at the same location may exhibit stress drop variations by as much as a factor of 300. We interpret that this variation in stress drop is caused by fluid pressure at the interface reducing the normal stress. We also hypothesize that the observed variations reflect a transition from stable to unstable slip on the imaged asperities.

Noviembre de 2014
Laboratory constraints on models of earthquake recurrence
Authors:
N. M. Beeler, Terry Tullis
Link: Click here

In this study, rock friction 'stick-slip' experiments are used to develop constraints on models of earthquake recurrence. Constant-rate loading of bare rock surfaces in high quality experiments produces stick-slip recurrence that is periodic at least to second order. When the loading rate is varied, recurrence is approximately inversely proportional to loading rate. These laboratory events initiate due to a slip rate-dependent process that also determines the size of the stress drop and as a consequence, stress drop varies weakly but systematically with loading rate. This is especially evident in experiments where the loading rate is changed by orders of magnitude, as is thought to be the loading condition of naturally occurring, small repeating

earthquakes driven by afterslip, or low-frequency earthquakes loaded by episodic slip. As follows from the previous studies referred to above, experimentally observed stress drops are well described by a logarithmic dependence on recurrence interval that can be cast as a non- linear slip-predictable model. The fault's rate dependence of strength is the key physical parameter. Additionally, even at constant loading rate the most reproducible laboratory recurrence is not exactly periodic, unlike existing friction recurrence models. We present example laboratory catalogs that document the variance and show that in large catalogs, even at constant loading rate, stress drop and recurrence co-vary systematically. The origin of this covariance is largely consistent with variability of the dependence of fault strength on slip rate. Laboratory catalogs show aspects of both slip and time predictability and successive stress drops are strongly correlated indicating a 'memory' of prior slip history that extends over at least one recurrence cycle.

Noviembre de 2014
A methodology for near-field tsunami inundation forecasting: Application to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami
Authors: Aditya Riadi Gusman, Yuichiro Taniokaet al

Link: Click here

Existing tsunami early warning systems in the world can give either one or a combination of estimated tsunami arrival times, heights, or qualitative tsunami forecasts before the tsunami hits near-field coastlines. A future tsunami early warning system should be able to provide a reliable near-field tsunami inundation forecast on high-resolution topography within a short time period. Here we describe a new methodology for near-field tsunami inundation forecasting. In this method, a precomputed tsunami inundation and precomputed tsunami waveform database is required. After information about a tsunami source is estimated, tsunami waveforms at nearshore points can be simulated in real time. A scenario that gives the most similar tsunami waveforms is selected as the site-specific best scenario and the tsunami inundation from that scenario is selected as the tsunami inundation forecast. To test the algorithm, tsunami inundation along the

Sanriku Coast is forecasted by using source models for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake estimated from GPS, W phase, or offshore tsunami waveform data. The forecasting algorithm is capable of providing a tsunami inundation forecast that is similar to that obtained by numerical forward modeling but with remarkably smaller CPU time. The time required to forecast tsunami inundation in coastal sites from the Sendai Plain to Miyako City is approximately 3?min after information about the tsunami source is obtained. We found that the tsunami inundation forecasts from the 5?min GPS, 5?min?W phase, 10?min?W phase fault models, and 35?min tsunami source model are all reliable for tsunami early warning purposes and quantitatively match the observations well, although the latter model gives tsunami forecasts with highest overall accuracy. The required times to obtain tsunami forecast from the above four models are 8?min, 9?min, 14?min, and 39?min after the earthquake, respectively, or in other words 3?min after receiving the source model. This method can be useful in developing future tsunami forecasting systems with a capability of providing tsunami inundation forecasts for locations near the tsunami source area.

Octubre de 2014
Knobby terrain on ancient volcanoes as an indication of dominant early explosive volcanism on Mars
Authors:
Jun Huang and Long Xiao
Link: Click here

Determining if the mechanically weak materials of the upper crust are products of early explosive volcanism or generated by modification of extensive effusive lava flows is important for understanding the geologic and thermal history of Mars. We examined 75 recently identified preserved ancient volcanoes, whose eruption styles are representative of early volcanism. We describe a unique knobby terrain that is

associated with 17 of these volcanoes. This newly identified terrain is characterized by a combination of high-resolution images and thermophysical and thermal infrared hyperspectral data. The morphology characteristics of these knobby terrains are similar to terrestrial eroded ignimbrites, and the thermophysical properties indicate that they are composed of unconsolidated fine-grained materials. The spectral analysis indicates that they experienced some aqueous alteration. We explain the knobby terrain associated with these ancient volcanoes as the products of an early explosive volcanic phase in Martian history, followed by subsequent modification of these deposits

Octubre de 2014
The Role of Geodesy in Earthquake and Volcanic Studies
Authors:
Manabu Hashimoto, Richard Gross et al
Link: Click here

Geodesists from 16 countries met in July to discuss the role of geodesy in earthquake and volcanic studies, natural hazard assessment, and disaster mitigation. The GENAH 2014

international symposium took place in Matsushima, Japan, a town that suffered greatly from the tsunami of 11 March 2011. The symposium featured sessions on seven topics: subduction zone earthquakes, the earthquake deformation cycle, near real-time warning, the interaction between earthquakes and volcanoes, the impact of great earthquakes on reference frame, geodetic techniques in volcanological research, and natural hazards.

Octubre de 2014
Cooling magma model for deep volcanic long-period earthquakes
Authors:
Naofumi Aso and Victor C. Tsai
Link: Click here

Deep long-period events (DLP events) or deep low-frequency earthquakes (deep LFEs) are deep earthquakes that radiate low-frequency seismic waves. While tectonic deep LFEs on plate boundaries are thought to be slip events, there have only been a limited number of studies on the physical mechanism of volcanic DLP events around the Moho (crust-mantle boundary) beneath volcanoes. One reasonable mechanism capable of producing their initial fractures is the effect of thermal stresses. Since ascending magma diapirs tend to stagnate near the Moho, where the vertical gradient of density is high, we suggest that cooling magma may play an important role in volcanic DLP event occurrence. Assuming an

initial thermal perturbation of 400?°C within a tabular magma of half-width 41?m or a cylindrical magma of 74?m radius, thermal strain rates within the intruded magma are higher than tectonic strain rates of ~?10??14?s??1, and produce a total strain of 2?×?10??4. Shear brittle fractures generated by the thermal strains can produce a compensated-linear-vector-dipole (CLVD) mechanism as observed, and potentially also explain the harmonic seismic waveforms from an excited resonance. In our model, we predict correlation between the particular shape of the cluster and the orientation of focal mechanisms, which is partly supported by observations of Aso and Ide [2014]. To assess the generality of our cooling magma model as a cause for volcanic DLP events, additional work on relocations and focal mechanisms is essential, and would be important to understanding the physical processes causing volcanic DLP events.

Octubre de 2014
The magnitude distribution of dynamically triggered earthquakes
Authors:
Stephen Hernandez, Emily E. Brodsky et al
Link: Click here

Large dynamic strains carried by seismic waves are known to trigger seismicity far from their source region. It is unknown, however, whether surface waves trigger only small earthquakes, or whether they can also trigger large earthquakes. To partially address this question, we evaluate whether current data can distinguish between the magnitude distribution of triggered and untriggered small earthquakes. We use a mixing

model approach in which total seismicity is decomposed into two classes: "triggered" events initiated or advanced by far?field dynamic strains and "untriggered" spontaneous events consisting of everything else. The b?value of a mixed data set, bMIX, is decomposed into a weighted sum of b?values of its constituent components, bT and bU. We utilize the previously observed relationship between triggering rate and dynamic strain amplitude to identify the fraction of triggered events in populations of earthquakes and then invert for bT. For Californian seismicity, data are consistent with a single parameter Gutenberg Richter hypothesis governing the magnitudes of both triggered and untriggered earthquakes.

Octubre de 2014
Dynamic triggering of microearthquakes in three geothermal/volcanic regions of California
Authors:
Chastity Aiken and Zhigang Peng
Link: Click here

Geothermal/volcanic regions are most susceptible to local earthquake triggering by regional and remote earthquakes. Transient stresses caused by surface waves of these earthquakes can activate critically stressed faults. Though earthquakes can be triggered in geothermal/volcanic regions, it is less understood how these regions differ in their triggering responses to distant earthquakes. We conduct a systematic survey of local earthquakes triggered by distant earthquakes in three geothermal/volcanic regions of California: Long Valley Caldera, Coso Geothermal Field, and Geysers Geothermal Field. We examine waveforms of distant earthquakes with magnitudes 5.5 occurring between 2000 and

2012 and compute ? statistics to confirm the significance of our findings. We find that Long Valley, Coso, and Geysers vary in triggering frequency-2.0%, 3.8%, and 6.8% in the 12?year period, respectively-and when compared to the triggering of deep tectonic tremors along the Parkfield-Cholame section of San Andreas Fault (9.2% in the 12?year period). Stress triggering thresholds vary among the regions with Long Valley having the highest of ~5 kPa and ~1 kPa for the other regions. Because dynamic stresses from distant earthquakes are similar in these three regions, the varying triggering behavior likely reflects faults having a tendency to be at or near failure. This is compatible with Geysers having a higher a value in the Gutenberg-Richter relationship and higher geothermal productivity than the other two regions. The observation of more frequent triggering of tremor than microearthquakes is consistent with recent laboratory studies on increasing triggerability with lower effective stress.

Octubre de 2014
Experimental evidence for seismically initiated gas bubble nucleation and growth in groundwater as a mechanism for coseismic borehole water level rise and remotely triggered seismicity
Authors:
Jackson B. Crews and Clay A. Cooper
Link: Click here

Changes in borehole water levels and remotely triggered seismicity occur in response to near and distant earthquakes at locations around the globe, but the mechanisms for these phenomena are not well understood. Experiments were conducted to show that seismically initiated gas bubble growth in groundwater can trigger a sustained increase in pore fluid pressure consistent in magnitude with observed coseismic borehole water level rise, constituting a physically plausible mechanism for remote triggering of secondary earthquakes through the reduction of effective stress in critically loaded geologic faults. A portion

of the CO2 degassing from the Earth's crust dissolves in groundwater where seismic Rayleigh and P waves cause dilational strain, which can reduce pore fluid pressure to or below the bubble pressure, triggering CO2 gas bubble growth in the saturated zone, indicated by a spontaneous buildup of pore fluid pressure. Excess pore fluid pressure was measured in response to the application of 0.1-1.0?MPa, 0.01-0.30?Hz confining stress oscillations to a Berea sandstone core flooded with initially subsaturated aqueous CO2, under conditions representative of a confined aquifer. Confining stress oscillations equivalent to the dynamic stress of the 28 June 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake Rayleigh wave as it traveled through the Long Valley caldera, and Parkfield, California, increased the pore fluid pressure in the Berea core by an average of 36?±?15?cm and 23?±?15?cm of equivalent freshwater head, respectively, in agreement with 41.8?cm and 34?cm rises recorded in wells at those locations.

Octubre de 2014
Bayesian confidence intervals for the magnitude of the largest aftershock
Author: Robert Shcherbakov

Link: Click here

Aftershock sequences, which follow large earthquakes, last hundreds of days and are characterized by well-defined frequency-magnitude and spatio-temporal distributions. The largest aftershocks in a sequence constitute significant hazard and can inflict additional damage to infrastructure that is already affected by the main shock. Therefore, the estimation of the

magnitude of a possible largest aftershock in a sequence is of high importance. In this work, a Bayesian predictive distribution and the corresponding confidence intervals for the magnitude of the largest expected aftershock in a sequence are derived using the framework of Bayesian analysis and extreme value statistics. The analysis is applied to 19 well-known aftershock sequences worldwide to construct retrospectively the confidence intervals for the magnitude of the subsequent largest aftershock by using the statistics of early aftershocks in the sequences.

Octubre de 2014
Localized fault slip to the trench in the 2010 Maule, Chile Mw = 8.8 earthquake from joint inversion of high-rate GPS, teleseismic body waves, InSAR, campaign GPS, and tsunami observations
Authors:
Han Yue, Thorne Lay et al
Link: Click here

The 27 February 2010, Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake ruptured ~500?km along the plate boundary offshore central Chile between 34°S and 38.5°S. Establishing whether co-seismic fault offset extended to the trench is important for interpreting both shallow frictional behavior and potential for tsunami earthquakes in the region. Joint inversion of high-rate GPS, teleseismic body waves, InSAR, campaign GPS, and tsunami observations yields a kinematic rupture model with improved resolution of slip near the trench. Bilateral rupture expansion is resolved in our model with relatively uniform slip of 5-10 m down-dip beneath the

coast and two near-trench high-slip patches with >12?m displacements. The peak slip is ~17?m at a depth of ~15 km on the central megathrust, located ~200?km north from the hypocenter and overlapping the rupture zone of the 1928?M ~8 event. The up-dip slip is ~16?m near the trench. Another shallow near-trench patch is located ~150?km southwest of the hypocenter, with a peak slip of 12?m. Checkerboard resolution tests demonstrate that correctly modeled tsunami data are critical to resolution of slip near the trench, with other data sets allowing, but not requiring slip far offshore. Large interplate aftershocks have a complementary distribution to the co-seismic slip pattern, filling in gaps or outlining edges of large-slip zones. Two clusters of normal faulting events locate seaward along the plate motion direction from the localized regions of large near-trench slip, suggesting that proximity of slip to the trench enhanced extensional faulting in the underthrusting plate.

Octubre de 2014
Investigating the Origin of Seismic Swarms
Authors:
Aladino Govoni,cLuigi Passarelli, Thomas Braun et al
Link: Click here

According to the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Hazards Program, a seismic swarm is “a localized surge of earthquakes, with no one shock being conspicuously larger than all other shocks of the swarm. They might occur in a variety of geologic environments and are not known to be indicative of any change in the long-term seismic risk of the region in which they occur”.

“A seismic swarm is by definition a localized surge of earthquakes, with no one shock being conspicuously larger than all other shocks of the swarm. Seismic swarms typically last longer than more typical earthquake sequences that consist of a main shock followed by significantly smaller aftershocks. Seismic swarms occur in a variety of geologic environments. They are not known to be indicative of any change in the long-term seismic risk of the region in which they occur.” (Link)

Octubre de 2014
Observing coseismic gravity change from the Japan Tohoku-Oki 2011 earthquake with GOCE gravity gradiometry
Authors:
Martin J. Fuchs, Johannes Bouman et al
Link: Click here

The Japan Tohoku-Oki earthquake (9.0 Mw) of 11 March 2011 has left signatures in the Earth's gravity field that are detectable by data of the Gravity field Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Because the European Space Agency's (ESA) satellite gravity mission Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE)-launched in 2009-aims at high spatial resolution, its measurements could complement the GRACE information on coseismic gravity changes, although time-variable gravity was not foreseen as goal of the GOCE mission. We modeled the coseismic earthquake geoid signal and converted this signal to vertical gravity gradients at GOCE satellite altitude. We combined

the single gradient observations in a novel way reducing the noise level, required to detect the coseismic gravity change, subtracted a global gravity model, and applied tailored outlier detection to the resulting gradient residuals. Furthermore, the measured gradients were along-track filtered using different gradient bandwidths where in the space domain Gaussian smoothing has been applied. One-year periods before and after earthquake occurrence have been compared with the modeled gradients. The comparison reveals that the earthquake signal is well above the accuracy of the vertical gravity gradients at orbital height. Moreover, the obtained signal from GOCE shows a 1.3 times higher amplitude compared with the modeled signal. Besides the statistical significance of the obtained signal, it has a high spatial correlation of ~0.7 with the forward modeled signal. We conclude therefore that the coseismic gravity change of the Japan Tohoku-Oki earthquake left a statistically significant signal in the GOCE measured gravity gradients.

Octubre de 2014
Hidden aftershocks of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku, Japan earthquake imaged with the back-projection method
Authors:
Eric Kiser and Miaki Ishii
Link: Click here

The first 25?hours of the aftershock sequence following the March 11, 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku, Japan earthquake are investigated using a back-projection method. In total, 600 aftershocks are imaged during this time period. These aftershocks are distributed over a 500 by 300?km area, and include many events in the outer rise.

The back-projection events are compared with the JMA catalogue, which is composed of earthquakes recorded by local seismic networks in Japan. Surprisingly, half of the back-projection events are not found in the JMA catalogue. These events cluster near the Japan Trench and in the outer rise, and fill in gaps in the spatial distribution of the early aftershock sequence where large mainshock slip is thought to have occurred. These results show that the JMA magnitude of completeness is very high near the trench following the 2011 Tohoku mainshock, and earthquakes as large as magnitude 6.8 went undetected by local seismic networks.

Octubre de 2014
The ULF/ELF electromagnetic radiation before the 11 March 2011 Japanese earthquake
Authors:
K. Ohta, J. Izuts, A. Schekotov et al
Link: Click here

The ULF/ELF short-term electromagnetic precursor is discovered for the disastrous Japan earthquake (EQ) occurred on 11 March 2011. This analysis is based on the records measured by search coil magnetometers located at Nakatsugawa (geographic coordinates; 35.42°N, 137.55°E), Shinojima (34.67°N, 137.01°E), and

Izu (34.64°N, 137.01°E) of the Chubu University network. The data of these magnetometers are extensively used to analyze the ULF/ELF seismo-atmospheric radiation. It is then found that the ULF/ELF atmospheric radio emission is reliably detected on 6 March before the main shock on 11 March, probably as a precursory signature of the EQ. Further confirmation on its seismic origin was provided by the observational fact that the azimuths of the radiation source from all observation sites coincide approximately with the region of the forthcoming EQ.

Septiembre de 2014
The preparatory phase of the 2009 Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake by improving the detection capability of low-magnitude foreshocks
Authors:
Monica Sugan, Aitaro Kato et al
Link: Click here

We explored the detection capability of low-magnitude earthquakes before the 6 April 2009 Mw 6.3 L'Aquila event by using a matched filter technique and 512 foreshocks as templates. We analyzed continuous waveforms from 10 broadband seismic stations in a 60 km radius

from the epicenter and for ~3 months before the main shock. More than 3000 new events, mostly located on the main shock fault, were detected to define the spatial-temporal evolution of micro-seismicity. The foreshock sequence was active northwest of the Mw 6.3 hypocenter in January, then migrated toward it at a speed of ~0.5?km/day in middle of February. At that time, in a ~4?km2 patch close to the main shock nucleation point, the cumulative number of earthquakes gradually increased until the Mw 6.3 event. This patch, characterized by a low b-value, played a key role in controlling the preparation stage to the 2009 L'Aquila main rupture.

Septiembre de 2014
Electric potential microelectrode for studies of electrobiogeophysics
Authors:
Lars Riis Damgaardm, Nils Risgaard-Petersen et al
Link: Click here

Spatially separated electron donors and acceptors in sediment can be exploited by the so-called "cable bacteria." Electric potential microelectrodes (EPMs) were constructed to measure the electric fields that should appear when cable bacteria conduct electrons over centimeter distances. The EPMs were needle-shaped, shielded Ag/AgCl half-cells that were rendered insensitive to redox-active species in the

environment. Tip diameters of 40 to 100?µm and signal resolution of approximately 10??V were achieved. A test in marine sediments with active cable bacteria showed an electric potential increase by approximately 2?mV from the sediment-water interface to a depth of approximately 20?mm, in accordance with the location and direction of the electric currents estimated from oxygen, pH, and H2S microprofiles. The EPM also captured emergence and decay of electric diffusion potentials in the upper millimeters of artificial sediment in response to changes in ion concentrations in the overlying water. The results suggest that the EPM can be used to track electric current sources and sinks with submillimeter resolution in microbial, biogeochemical, and geophysical studies.

Septiembre de 2014
Structures and geometries of the Tajo Basin crust, Spain: Results of a magnetotelluric investigation compared to seismic and thermal models
Authors:
J.-P. Schmoldt, A. G. Jones et al
Link: Click here

The Tajo Basin and Betic Mountain Chain in the south central region of the Iberian Peninsula were chosen for investigation in the first phase of the magnetotelluric (MT) component of the PICASSO (Program to Investigate the Convective Alboran Sea System Overturn) project. The MT results provide information about the electrical conductivity distribution in previously unprobed subsurface regions, as well as complimenting and enhancing results of prior geological and geophysical investigations thereby enabling the

definition of a petrological subsurface model and a comprehensive understanding about the tectonic setting. Two-dimensional (2-D) inversion of the MT data provides enhanced insight into Iberian subsurface geology in the crust. The most striking features of the final model are (i) a distinct vertical interface within the Variscan basement beneath the center of the Tajo Basin that is spatially associated with the boundary between regions with and without substantial Alpine deformation, and (ii) a middle to lower crustal conductive anomaly that can be related to remnants of asthenospheric intrusion in connection with Pliocene volcanic events in the Calatrava Volcanic Province. For the latter, effects of hydrous phases are inferred that may originate from dehydration processes within the subducting slab beneath Alboran Domain and Betic Mountain Chain.

Septiembre de 2014
A simple inverse method for the interpretation of pumped flowing fluid electrical conductivity logs
Authors:
R. S. Moir, A. H. Parker et al
Link: Click here

Pumped flowing fluid electrical conductivity (FFEC) logs, also known as pumped borehole dilution testing, is an experimentally easy-to-perform approach to evaluating vertical variations in the hydraulic conductivity of an aquifer. In contrast to the simplicity of the logging equipment, analysis of the data is complex and laborious. Current methods typically require repeated solution of the advection-dispersion equation (ADE) for describing the flow in the borehole and comparison with the experimental results. In this paper, we describe a direct solution for

determining borehole fluid velocity that bypasses the need for complex numerical computation and repetitive optimization. The method rests on the observation that, while solving the ADE for concentration profile in the borehole (as required for modeling and combined methods) is computationally challenging, the solution for flow distribution along the length of the borehole given concentration data is straightforward. The method can accommodate varying borehole diameters, and uses the fact that multiple profiles are taken in the standard logging approach to reduce the impact of noise. Data from both a simulated borehole and from a field test are successfully analyzed. The method is implemented in a spreadsheet, which is available as supporting information material to this paper.

Septiembre de 2014
The magnitude distribution of dynamically triggered earthquakes
Authors:
Stephen Hernandez, Emily E. Brodsky et al
Link: Click here

Large dynamic strains carried by seismic waves are known to trigger seismicity far from their source region. It is unknown, however, whether surface waves trigger only small earthquakes, or whether they can also trigger large earthquakes. To partially address this question, we evaluate whether current data can distinguish between the magnitude distribution of triggered and untriggered small earthquakes. We use a mixing

model approach in which total seismicity is decomposed into two classes: "triggered" events initiated or advanced by far-field dynamic strains and "untriggered" spontaneous events consisting of everything else. The b-value of a mixed data set, bMIX, is decomposed into a weighted sum of b-values of its constituent components, bT and bU. We utilize the previously observed relationship between triggering rate and dynamic strain amplitude to identify the fraction of triggered events in populations of earthquakes and then invert for bT. For Californian seismicity, data are consistent with a single-parameter Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis governing the magnitudes of both triggered and untriggered earthquakes.

Septiembre de 2014
The 23 June 2014 Mw 7.9 Rat Islands archipelago, Alaska, intermediate depth earthquake
Authors:
Lingling Ye, Thorne Lay et al
Link: Click here

On 23 June 2014, the largest intermediate depth earthquake (Mw 7.9) of the last 100?years ruptured within the subducting Pacific plate about 100 km below the Rat Islands archipelago of the Western Aleutian Islands, Alaska. The unusual faulting orientation, strike = 206°, dip = 24°, and

rake= 14°, is possibly related to curvature of the underthrust slab and high obliquity of the relative plate motions. The first ~15?s of the rupture generated relatively weak seismic waves, followed by strong energy release for the next 25?s. The seismic moment is 1.0?×?1021?Nm, and slip of up to ~10 m is concentrated within a 50 km× 50?km region. The radiated energy is 1.1 to 2.7 × 1016 J, assuming attenuation t* of 0.4 to 0.7 s. This type of intraplate faulting can be very damaging for populated regions above subduction zones such as Japan, Taiwan, Chile, and Indonesia.

Septiembre de 2014
Seismic moment tensor and b value variations over successive seismic cycles in laboratory stick-slip experiments
Authors:
Grzegorz Kwiatek, T. H. W. Goebel et al
Link: Click here

The formation of fault damage due to slip under high normal stresses can rarely be monitored under in situ conditions. To advance our understanding of microfracture processes, we investigated stick-slip events on Westerly granite samples containing the following: (1) a planar saw cut fault and (2) a fault developed from a fresh fracture surface. We examined temporal changes of seismic moment tensors and b

values of acoustic emission (AE) events. During experiment on the saw cut surface, small AEs exhibiting non-double-couple components were observed continuously and strong AEs displaying double-couple components were visible only when approaching the slip onsets. Sliding on naturally fractured surfaces showed, in addition to double-couple components, significant volumetric contributions, especially during the interslip periods and immediately after stick-slip events indicating substantial shear-enhanced compaction within a relatively broad damage zone. The obtained results shed light on how differences in fault structure control the kinematics of microseismicity during different periods of the seismic cycle.

Septiembre de 2014
REVIEWING AND VISUALIZING THE INTERACTIONS OF NATURAL HAZARDS
Authors: Joel C. Gill and Bruce D. Malamud

Link: Click here

This paper presents a broad overview, characterization and visualization of the interaction relationships between 21 natural hazards, drawn from six hazard groups (geophysical, hydrological, shallow Earth, atmospheric, biophysical and space hazards). A synthesis is presented of the identified interaction relationships between these hazards, using an accessible, visual format particularly suited to end-users. Interactions considered are primarily those where a primary hazard triggers or increases the probability of secondary hazards occurring. In this paper we do the following: (i) Identify, through a wide-ranging review of grey- and peer-review literature, 90 interactions. (ii) Subdivide the interactions into three levels, based on how well we can

characterize secondary hazards given information about the primary hazard. (iii) Determine the spatial overlap and temporal likelihood of the triggering relationships occurring. (iv) Examine the relationship between primary and secondary hazard intensities for each identified hazard interaction and group these into five possible categories. In this study we have synthesized, using accessible visualization techniques, large amounts of information drawn from many scientific disciplines. We outline the importance of constraining hazard interactions and reinforce the importance of a holistic (or multi-hazard) approach to natural hazard assessment. This approach allows those undertaking research into single hazards to place their work within the context of other hazards. It also communicates important aspects of hazard interactions, facilitating an effective analysis by those working on reducing and managing disaster risk within both the policy and practitioner communities.

Septiembre de 2014
Space-time model for repeating earthquakes and analysis of recurrence intervals on the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California
Authors:
Shunichi Nomura, Yosihiko Ogata et al
Link: Click here

We propose a stochastic model for characteristically repeating earthquake sequences to estimate the spatiotemporal change in static stress loading rate. These earthquakes recur by a cyclic mechanism where stress at a hypocenter is accumulated by tectonic forces until an earthquake occurs that releases the accumulated stress to a basal level. Renewal processes are frequently used to describe this repeating earthquake mechanism. Variations in the rate of tectonic loading due to large earthquakes and aseismic slip transients, however, introduce nonstationary effects into the repeating mechanism that result in nonstationary trends in interevent times, particularly for smaller

magnitude repeating events which have shorter interevent times. These trends are also similar among repeating earthquake sites having similar hypocenters. Therefore, we incorporate space- time structure represented by cubic B-spline functions into the renewal model and estimate their coefficient parameters by maximizing the integrated likelihood in a Bayesian framework. We apply our model to 31 repeating earthquake sequences including 824 events on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault and estimate the spatiotemporal transition of the loading rate on this segment. The result gives us details of the change in tectonic loading caused by an aseismic slip transient in 1993, the 2004 Parkfield M6 earthquake, and other nearby or remote seismic activities. The degree of periodicity of repeating event recurrence intervals also shows spatial trends that are preserved in time even after the 2004 Parkfield earthquake when time scales are normalized with respect to the estimated loading rate.

Septiembre de 2014
El Cobreloa: A geyser with two distinct eruption styles
Authors:
Atsuko Namiki, Carolina Muñoz-Saez et al
Link: Click here

We performed field measurements at a geyser nicknamed "El Cobreloa," located in the El Tatio Geyser Field, Northern Andes, Chile. The El Cobreloa geyser has two distinct eruption styles: minor eruptions and more energetic and long-lived major eruptions. Minor eruptions splash hot water intermittently over an approximately 4 min time period. Major eruptions begin with an eruption style similar to minor eruptions, but then transition to a voluminous liquid water-dominated eruption, and finally end with energetic steam discharge that continues for approximately 1 h. We calculated eruption intervals by visual observations, acoustic measurements, and

ground temperature measurements and found that each eruption style has a regular interval: 4 h and 40 min for major eruptions and 14 min for minor eruptions. Eruptions of El Cobreloa and geochemical measurements suggest interaction of three water sources. The geyser reservoir, connected to the surface by a conduit, is recharged by a deep, hot aquifer. More deeply derived magmatic fluids heat the reservoir. Boiling in the reservoir releases steam and hot liquid water to the overlying conduit, causing minor eruptions, and heating the water in the conduit. Eventually the water in the conduit becomes warm enough to boil, leading to a steam-dominated eruption that empties the conduit. The conduit is then recharged by a shallow, colder aquifer, and the eruption cycle begins anew. We develop a model for minor eruptions which heat the water in the conduit. El Cobreloa provides insight into how small eruptions prepare the geyser system for large eruptions.

Septiembre de 2014
A new earthquake model may explain discrepancies in San Andreas fault slip
Author:
Colin Schultz
Link: Click here

Investigating the earthquake hazards of the San Andreas fault system requires an accurate understanding of accumulating stresses and the

history of past earthquakes. Faults tend to go through an "earthquake cycle"-locking and accumulating stress, rupturing in an earthquake, and locking again in a well-accepted process known as "elastic rebound." One of the key factors in preparing for California's next "big one" is estimating the fault slip rate, the speed at which one side of the San Andreas fault is moving past the other.

Septiembre de 2014
Tide-driven shear instability in planetary liquid cores
Authors:
Alban Sauret, Michael Le Bars et al
Link: Click here

We present an experimental study on the shear instability driven by tidal forcing in a model planetary liquid core. The experimental setup consists of a water-filled deformable sphere rotating around its axis and subjected to an

elliptical forcing. At resonant forcing frequencies, the nonlinear self-interaction of the excited inertial mode drives an intense and localized axisymmetric jet. The jet becomes unstable at low Ekman number because of a shear instability. Using particle image velocimetry measurements, we derive a semiempirical scaling law that captures the instability threshold of the shear instability. This mechanism is fully relevant to planetary systems, where it constitutes a new route to generate turbulence in their liquid cores.

Septiembre de 2014
Evidence of viscoelastic deformation following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake revealed from seafloor geodetic observation
Authors:
Shun-ichi Watanabe, Mariko Sato et al
Link: Click here

The GPS/acoustic seafloor positioning has detected significant postseismic movements after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (M9.0), just above the source region off the Pacific coast of eastern Japan. In contrast to the coastal Global Navigation Satellite Systems sites where trenchward-upward movements were reported, the offshore sites above the main rupture zone in

the northern part of the source region exhibit landward displacements of tens of centimeters with significant subsidence from almost 3 years of repeated observations. At the sites above around the edge of the main rupture zone, smaller amount of trench-normal movements was found. Although the terrestrial movements were reasonably interpreted by afterslip beneath the coastal area, these offshore results are rather consistent with effects predicted from viscoelastic relaxation in the upper mantle, providing definitive evidence of its occurrence. On the other hand, the results in the southern part of the source region imply superposition of effects from viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip.

Agosto de 2014
Intense foreshocks and a slow slip event preceded the 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake
Authors:
S. Ruiz, M. Metois et al
Link: Click here

The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. The moment magnitude (Mw) 8.1 Iquique earthquake of 1 April 2014 broke a highly coupled portion of this gap. To understand the seismicity preceding this event, we studied the location and

mechanisms of the foreshocks and computed Global Positioning System (GPS) time series at stations located on shore. Seismicity off the coast of Iquique started to increase in January 2014. After 16 March, several Mw > 6 events occurred near the low-coupled zone. These events migrated northward for ~50 kilometers until the 1 April earthquake occurred. On 16 March, on-shore continuous GPS stations detected a westward motion that we model as a slow slip event situated in the same area where the mainshock occurred.

Agosto de 2014
A simple inverse method for the interpretation of pumped flowing fluid electrical conductivity logs
Authors:
R. S. Moir, A. H. Parker et al
Link: Click here

Pumped flowing fluid electrical conductivity (FFEC) logs, also known as pumped borehole dilution testing, is an experimentally easy-to-perform approach to evaluating vertical variations in the hydraulic conductivity of an aquifer. In contrast to the simplicity of the logging equipment, analysis of the data is complex and laborious. Current methods typically require repeated solution of the advection-dispersion equation (ADE) for describing the flow in the borehole and comparison with the experimental results. In this paper, we describe a direct solution for

determining borehole fluid velocity that bypasses the need for complex numerical computation and repetitive optimization. The method rests on the observation that, while solving the ADE for concentration profile in the borehole (as required for modeling and combined methods) is computationally challenging, the solution for flow distribution along the length of the borehole given concentration data is straightforward. The method can accommodate varying borehole diameters, and uses the fact that multiple profiles are taken in the standard logging approach to reduce the impact of noise. Data from both a simulated borehole and from a field test are successfully analyzed. The method is implemented in a spreadsheet, which is available as supporting information material to this paper.

Agosto de 2014
Using lacustrine turbidites to illuminate past earthquakes (Chile)
Author: JoAnna Wendel

Link: Click here

To fully understand earthquake occurrence patterns, especially at underwater subduction

zones, scientists often look to the past. Geological structures such as turbidites—the deposits from sediment-infused, dense, watery landslides caused by undersea earthquakes—can be good proxies by which scientists study past earthquakes.

Agosto de 2014
Self-organization of the Earth's climate system versus Milankovitch-Berger astronomical cycles
Author:
Lev A. Maslov
Link: Click here

The Late Pleistocene Antarctic temperature variation curve is decomposed into two components: "cyclic" and "high frequency, stochastic." For each of these components, a mathematical model is developed which shows that the cyclic and stochastic temperature variations are distinct, but interconnected,

processes with their own self-organization. To model the cyclic component, a system of ordinary differential equations is written which represent an auto-oscillating, self-organized process with constant period. It is also shown that these equations can be used to model more realistic variations in temperature with changing cycle length. For the stochastic component, the multifractal spectrum is calculated and compared to the multifractal spectrum of a critical sine-circle map. A physical interpretation of relevant mathematical models and discussion of future climate development within the context of this work is given.

Agosto de 2014
Varying seismic-acoustic properties of the fluctuating lava lake at Villarrica volcano, Chile
Authors:
Joshua P. Richardson, Gregory P. Waite et al
Link: Click here

Villarrica volcano outgasses through an open lava lake, with bubbles ranging in size from submillimeter to several meters, the largest of which produce strombolian bursting events that are visible from the crater rim. Thousands of shallow strombolian events identified through seismic waveform cross correlation were found to produce discrete and repetitive long-period seismic and infrasonic signals. We identified variations of up to 0.7?s in seismic-acoustic arrival delay times between April and July 2010 at a station ~750?m from the vent, which we interpret as due to fluctuations in the level of lava lake.

During time periods interpreted as having high lava lake levels, based on reduced time delays, interevent times were also reduced, and average seismic amplitude measurements, seismic and acoustic event energies, and volcano acoustic-seismic ratios were all high as compared to times when the lava lake was lower. The crater is also a source of nearly continuous, monotonic infrasonic tremor. We found that the peak frequency of this infrasonic tremor, typically around 0.5-1.0 Hz, was inversely correlated with seismic-acoustic delay times and therefore an indicator of lava lake level. We use this correlation to propose a new model for infrasonic tremor generation, namely, using crater geometry to approximate a Bessel horn. We interpret the two clearest cycles of elevated seismicity and lava lake level as due to an increase in exsolved gas, resulting from an injection of volatile-rich magma or an overturn in a deeper magma reservoir.

Agosto de 2014
Dispersion and nonlinear effects in the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake tsunami
Authors:
Tatsuhiko Saito, Daisuke Inazu et al
Link: Click here

This study reveals the roles of the wave dispersion and nonlinear effects for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake tsunami. We conducted tsunami simulations based on the nonlinear dispersive equations with a high-resolution source model. The simulations successfully reproduced the waveforms recorded in the offshore, deep sea, and focal areas. The calculated inundation area coincided well with the actual inundation for the Sendai Plain, which was the widest inundation area during this event. By conducting sets of simulations with different

tsunami equations, we obtained the followings insights into the wave dispersion, nonlinear effects, and energy dissipation for this event. Although the wave dispersion was neglected in most studies, the maximum amplitude was significantly overestimated in the deep sea if the dispersion was not included. The waveform observed at the station with the largest tsunami height (?2 m) among the deep-ocean stations also verified the necessity of the dispersion. It is well known that the nonlinear effects play an important role for the propagation of a tsunami into bays and harbors. Additionally, nonlinear effects need to be considered to accurately model later waves, even for offshore stations. In particular, including nonlinear terms rather than the inundation was more important when precisely modeling the waves reflected from the coast.

Agosto de 2014
A boom in boomless seismology
Author: Eric Hand

Link: Click here

Taking advantage of cheap, long-lasting sensors developed by the oil and gas industry, seismologists are increasingly exploring the top 10 kilometers of the crust with dense surveys of hundreds or even thousands of seismometers.

What's more, the surveys are being operated passively, which means that ambient noise from Earth is used to illuminate the subsurface. Passive surveys are cheaper and easier to permit than active surveys, which rely on explosives or vibrations from special "thumper trucks." Seismologists predict that the dense surveys will yield precision imaging of magma chambers underneath volcanos and earthquake rupture zones along faults.

Agosto de 2014
Spherical harmonic stacking for the singlets of Earth's normal modes of free oscillation
Authors:
Benjamin F. Chao and Hao Ding
Link: Click here

We extend the spherical harmonic stacking (SHS) method of Buland et al. (1979) for the radial (vertical) component in the seismogram to the transverse (horizontal) components of the displacement field. Taking advantage of the orthogonality of the spherical harmonic functions (scalar and vectorial), SHS isolates and accentuates the signals of individual singlets of

the Earth's normal modes of free oscillation. We apply the SHS on the broadband Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) seismograms from up to 97 IRIS seismic stations for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, in experiments targeted to spheroidal as well as toroidal modes-2S1,0S3, 2S2, 3S1, 1S3, 0T2, and 0T3. We report the complete resolution of the singlet frequencies of these multiplets, some for the first time, and estimate the singlets' complex frequencies using the frequency domain autoregressive method of Chao and Gilbert (1980). The latter contain useful information to be used in inversions for the 3-D structure of the Earth's interior.

Agosto de 2014
Long- and short-term postseismic gravity changes of megathrust earthquakes from satellite gravimetry
Authors:
Yusaku Tanaka and Kosuke Heki
Link: Click here

Using monthly satellite gravimetry data, we studied time-variable gravity field after three M9 class earthquakes, the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman, 2010 Chile (Maule), and 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquakes. The observations showed that the gravity typically (1) decreases coseismically, (2) continues to decrease for a few months, and (3)

increases over a longer period. Therefore, postseismic gravity changes have two components with different time constants and polarities. The mechanisms of short- and long-term postseismic gravity changes are not as clear as coseismic changes at the moment, but might be explained to some extent with afterslip and the Maxwell viscoelasticity, respectively. These two components are difficult to discriminate with surface velocity measurements because the forearc area moves trenchward at both stages. They appear in different polarities in gravity, making satellite gravimetry a unique tool to separate them.

Julio de 2014
Gas emissions from five volcanoes in northern Chile and implications for the volatiles budget of the Central Volcanic Zone
Authors: G. Tamburello, T. H. Hansteen
et al
Link: Click here

This study performed the first assessment of the volcanic gas output from the Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ) of northern Chile. We present the fluxes and compositions of volcanic gases (H2O, CO2, H2, HCl, HF, and HBr) from five of the most actively degassing volcanoes in this region-

Láscar, Lastarria, Putana, Ollagüe, and San Pedro-obtained during field campaigns in 2012 and 2013. The inferred gas plume compositions for Láscar and Lastarria (CO2/Stot?=?0.9-2.2; Stot/HCl ?=?1.4-3.4) are similar to those obtained in the Southern Volcanic Zone of Chile, suggesting uniform magmatic gas fingerprint throughout the Chilean arc. Combining these compositions with our own UV spectroscopy measurements of the SO2 output (summing to ~1800?t?d?1 for the CVZ), we calculate a cumulative CO2 output of 1743-1988?t?d?1 and a total volatiles output of >20,200?t?d?1.

Julio de 2014
Multiple slow-slip events during a foreshock sequence of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.1 earthquake
Authors:
Aitaro Kato and Shigeki Nakagawa
Link: Click here

To obtain a precise record of the foreshock sequence before the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.1 earthquake, we applied a matched filter technique to continuous seismograms recorded near the source region. We newly detected about 10 times the number of seismic events listed in the routinely constructed earthquake catalog and

identified multiple sequences of earthquake migrations at speeds of 2-10?km/d, both along strike and downdip on the fault plane, updip of the main shock area. In addition, we found out repeating earthquakes from the newly detected events, likely indicating aseismic slip along the plate boundary fault during the foreshock sequence. These observations suggest the occurrence of multiple slow-slip events updip of the main shock area. The final slow-slip event migrated toward the main shock nucleation point. We interpret that several parts of the plate boundary fault perhaps experienced slow slip, causing stress loading on the prospective largest slip patch of the main shock rupture.

Julio de 2014
Two subevents across the Japan Trench during the 7 December 2012 off Tohoku earthquake (Mw 7.3) inferred from offshore tsunami records
Authors:
Daisuke Inazu and Tatsuhiko Saito
Link: Click here

A tsunamigenic earthquake with a moment magnitude of 7.3 occurred near the Japan Trench, off Tohoku, northeast Japan, on 7 December 2012. Operational seismic monitoring inferred that the earthquake was composed of doublet sources of comparable magnitudes: the first event was reverse faulting and the second event, which occurred 10-20 s later, was normal faulting. An

associated tsunami was observed at offshore stations, having an amplitude of 10?1 to 101 cm. Inverse modeling using the observed tsunami records reveals possible vertical seafloor deformations. We can then constrain, in terms of the source location, that the tsunamigenic earthquake involves two subfaults across the Japan Trench: one is the outer trench reverse faulting as the first event and the second is the inner trench normal faulting. The present study shows that tsunami analysis with seismograph analyses effectively constrains the epicenter locations, even in the case of complex earthquakes like doublets.

Julio de 2014
Multiple slow-slip events during a foreshock sequence of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.1 earthquake
Authors:
Aitaro Kato and Shigeki Nakagawa
Link: Click here

To obtain a precise record of the foreshock sequence before the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.1 earthquake, we applied a matched filter technique to continuous seismograms recorded near the source region. We newly detected about 10 times the number of seismic events listed in the routinely constructed earthquake catalog and identified multiple sequences of earthquake

migrations at speeds of 2-10?km/d, both along strike and downdip on the fault plane, updip of the main shock area. In addition, we found out repeating earthquakes from the newly detected events, likely indicating aseismic slip along the plate boundary fault during the foreshock sequence. These observations suggest the occurrence of multiple slow-slip events updip of the main shock area. The final slow-slip event migrated toward the main shock nucleation point. We interpret that several parts of the plate boundary fault perhaps experienced slow slip, causing stress loading on the prospective largest slip patch of the main shock rupture.

Julio de 2014
The 2010-2014.3 global earthquake rate increase
Authors:
Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist
Link: Click here

In light of a heightened global earthquake rate during the first quarter of 2014 and recent studies concluding that large earthquakes affect global seismicity for extended periods, we revisit the question whether the temporal distribution of global earthquakes shows clustering beyond that expected from a time-independent Poisson process. We examine a broad window from 1979

to 2014.3 for M???7.0 shocks, and a narrow window for M? ??5.0 seismicity since 2010 that has higher than average rates. We test whether a Poisson process can be falsified at 95% confidence to assess the degree of dependent clustering in the catalogs. If aftershocks within at least one rupture length from main shocks/foreshocks are filtered, then we find no evidence of global scale M???5.2-5.6 (depending on parameters) clustering since 2010 that demands a physical explanation. There is evidence for interdependence below this threshold that could be a consequence of catalog completeness or a physical process.

Julio de 2014
On the predictability limit of convection models of the Earth's mantle
Authors: Léa Bello, Nicolas Coltice
et al
Link: Click here

Reconstructing convective flow in the Earth's mantle is a crucial issue for a diversity of disciplines, from seismology to sedimentology. The common and fundamental limitation of these reconstructions based on geodynamic modeling is the unknown initial conditions. Because of the chaotic nature of convection in the Earth's mantle, errors in initial conditions grow exponentially with time and limit forecasting and hindcasting

abilities. In this work, we estimate for the first time the limit of predictability of Earth's mantle convection. Following the twin experiment method, we compute the Lyapunov time (i.e., e-folding time) for state of the art 3-D spherical convection models, varying rheology, and Rayleigh number. Our most Earth-like and optimistic solution gives a Lyapunov time of 136?±?13 Myr. Rough estimates of the uncertainties in best guessed initial conditions are around 5%, leading to a limit of predictability for mantle convection of 95 Myr. Our results suggest that error growth could produce unrealistic convective structures over time scales shorter than that of Pangea dispersal.

Julio de 2014
Relative water and gas permeability for gas production from hydrate-bearing sediments
Authors: Nariman Mahabadi and Jaewon Jang

Link: Click here

Relative water and gas permeability equations are important for estimating gas and water production from hydrate-bearing sediments. However, experimental or numerical study to determine fitting parameters of those equations is not available in the literature. In this study, a pore-network model is developed to simulate gas expansion and calculate relative water and gas

permeability. Based on the simulation results, fitting parameters for modified Stone equation are suggested for a distributed hydrate system where initial hydrate saturations range from Sh?=?0.1 to 0.6. The suggested fitting parameter for relative water permeability is nw? ??2.4 regardless of initial hydrate saturation while the suggested fitting parameter for relative gas permeability is increased from ng?=?1.8 for Sh?=?0.1 to ng?=?3.5 for Sh? =?0.6. Results are relevant to other systems that experience gas exsolution such as pockmark formation due to sea level change, CO2 gas formation during geological CO2 sequestration, and gas bubble accumulation near the downstream of dams.

Julio de 2014
El Cobreloa: A geyser with two distinct eruption styles
Authors: Atsuko Namiki , Carolina Muñoz-Saez
et al
Link: Click here

We performed field measurements at a geyser nicknamed "El Cobreloa", located in the El Tatio Geyser Field, Northern Andes, Chile. The El Cobreloa geyser has two distinct eruption styles: minor eruptions, and more energetic and long-lived major eruptions. Minor eruptions splash hot water intermittently over an approximately 4?minute time period. Major eruptions begin with an eruption style similar to minor eruptions, but then transition to a voluminous liquid-water-dominated eruption, and finally end with energetic steam discharge that continues for approximately 1?hour. We calculated eruption intervals by visual observations, acoustic measurements, and

ground temperature measurements, and found that each eruption style has a regular interval: 4?hours and 40?minutes for major eruptions, and ~14?minutes for minor eruptions. Eruptions of El Cobreloa and geochemical measurements suggest interaction of three water sources. The geyser reservoir, connected to the surface by a conduit, is recharged by a deep, hot aquifer. More deeply derived magmatic fluids heat the reservoir. Boiling in the reservoir releases steam and hot liquid water to the overlying conduit, causing minor eruptions, and heating the water in the conduit. Eventually the water in the conduit becomes warm enough to boil, leading to a steam-dominated eruption that empties the conduit. The conduit is then recharged by a shallow, colder aquifer, and the eruption cycle begins anew. We develop a model for minor eruptions which heat the water in the conduit. El Cobreloa provides insight into how small eruptions prepare the geyser system for large eruptions.

Julio de 2014
Hydrochemical monitoring, petrological observation, and geochemical modeling of fault healing after an earthquake
Authors: Niklas Wästeby, Alasdair Skelton
et al
Link: Click here

Based on hydrochemical monitoring, petrological observations, and geochemical modeling, we identify a mechanism and estimate a time scale for fault healing after an earthquake. Hydrochemical monitoring of groundwater samples from an aquifer, which is at an approximate depth of 1200?m, was conducted over a period of 10?years. Groundwater samples have been taken from a borehole (HU-01) that crosses the Húsavík-Flatey Fault (HFF) near Húsavík town, northern Iceland. After 10?weeks of sampling, on 16 September 2002, an M 5.8 earthquake occurred on the Grimsey Lineament, which is approximately parallel to the HFF. This earthquake caused rupturing of a hydrological barrier resulting in an influx of groundwater from a

second aquifer, which was recorded by 15-20% concentration increases for some cations and anions. This was followed by hydrochemical recovery. Based on petrological observations of tectonically exhumed fault rocks, we conclude that hydrochemical recovery recorded fault healing by precipitation of secondary minerals along fractures. Because hydrochemical recovery accelerated with time, we conclude that the growth rate of these minerals was controlled by reaction rates at mineral-water interfaces. Geochemical modeling confirmed that the secondary minerals which formed along fractures were saturated in the sampled groundwater. Fault healing and therefore hydrochemical recovery was periodically interrupted by refracturing events. Supported by field and petrographic evidence, we conclude that these events were caused by changes of fluid pressure probably coupled with earthquakes. These events became successively smaller as groundwater flux decreased with time. Despite refracturing, hydrochemical recovery reached completion 8-10 years after the earthquake.

Julio de 2014
Mapping Europe's Seismic Hazard
Authors: Domenico Giardini, Jochen Wössner
et al
Link: Click here

From the rift that cuts through the heart of Iceland to the complex tectonic convergence that causes

frequent and often deadly earthquakes in Italy, Greece, and Turkey to the volcanic tremors that rattle the Mediterranean, seismic activity is a prevalent and often life-threatening reality across Europe. Any attempt to mitigate the seismic risk faced by society requires an accurate estimate of the seismic hazard.

Julio de 2014
The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami observed by an array of ocean bottom electromagnetometers
Authors:
Luolei Zhang, Kiyoshi Baba et al
Link: Click here

A tsunami induces secondary electromagnetic (EM) fields of significant intensity as a result of Faraday's law, and these EM fields can be recorded by instruments on the seafloor. Such observations will provide parameters that are useful in understanding tsunami generation and

propagation processes. As such, EM sensors can be used as a type of tsunami sensor. In the present study, we report the observation of tsunami-induced EM signals by a small array of ocean bottom electromagnetometers consisting of four stations in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Then, several data analysis methods are used to estimate tsunami parameters. Referring to the theoretical relation, the wave height is estimated from the observed magnetic and electric fields. Also, the propagation direction of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami is estimated by applying analysis methods for an array and a single station.

Julio de 2014
Mapping pressurized volcanic fluids from induced crustal seismic velocity drops
Authors:
F. Brenguier, M. Campillo et al
Link: Click here

A tsunami induces secondary electromagnetic (EM) fields of significant intensity as a result of Faraday's law, and these EM fields can be recorded by instruments on the seafloor. Such observations will provide parameters that are useful in understanding tsunami generation and

propagation processes. As such, EM sensors can be used as a type of tsunami sensor. In the present study, we report the observation of tsunami-induced EM signals by a small array of ocean bottom electromagnetometers consisting of four stations in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Then, several data analysis methods are used to estimate tsunami parameters. Referring to the theoretical relation, the wave height is estimated from the observed magnetic and electric fields. Also, the propagation direction of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami is estimated by applying analysis methods for an array and a single station.

Julio de 2014
Simulation of the airwave caused by the Chelyabinsk superbolide
Authors:
Mikhail I. Avramenko, Igor V. Glazyrin et al
Link: Click here

Numerical simulations were carried out to model the propagation of an airwave from the fireball that passed over Chelyabinsk (Russia) on 15 February 2013. The airburst of the Chelyabinsk meteoroid occurred due to its catastrophic fragmentation in the atmosphere. Simulations of the space-time distribution of energy deposition during the airburst were done using a novel fragmentation model based on dimensionality considerations and analogy to the fission chain reaction in fissile materials. To get an estimate of the airburst energy, observed values of the airwave arrival times to different populated localities were retrieved from video records

available on the Internet. The calculated arrival times agree well with the observed values for all the localities. Energy deposition in the atmosphere obtained from observations of the airwave arrival times was found to be 460?±?60 kt in trinitrotoluene (TNT) equivalent. We also obtained an independent estimate for the deposited energy, kt TNT from detecting the air increment velocity due to the wave passage in Chelyabinsk. Assuming that the energy of about 90 kt TNT was irradiated in the form of visible light and infrared radiation, as registered with optical sensors [Yeomans and Chodas, 2013], one can value the total energy release to be about 550 kt TNT which is in agreement with previous estimates from infrasound registration and from optical sensors data. The overpressure amplitude and its positive phase duration in the airwave that reached the city of Chelyabinsk were calculated to be about 2 kPa and 10?s accordingly.

Julio de 2014
Coseismic magnetization of fault pseudotachylytes: 1. Thermal demagnetization experiments
Authors:
E.C. Ferré, J.W. Geissman et al
Link: Click here

Fault pseudotachylytes form by quenching of silicate liquids produced through coseismic frictional melting. Here we show that in natural pseudotachylytes the main carrier of magnetic remanence blocked in during cooling of the frictional melt is fine grained magnetite. This confirms previous studies on friction melt experiments. Stoichiometric magnetite, produced during earthquakes by the breakdown of ferromagnesian silicates, records the ambient magnetic field during seismic slip. We find that most fault pseudotachylytes exposed in the Santa

Rosa Mountains, southern California, a classic pseudotachylyte locality, acquired their natural remanent magnetization (NRM) upon cooling of the frictional melt through the range of magnetization blocking temperatures of the magnetite grains and this primarily constitutes a thermal remanent magnetization (TRM). NRM intensities typical of most pseudotachylyte veins range from 1 to 60. 10?4 Am2/kg. A few specimens, however, contain magnetizations significantly higher than that caused by the Earth's field as well as magnetization directions that are highly variable over short distances. Other magnetization processes, possibly related to coseismic electric currents, may be involved during the seismogenic process to control NRM acquisition.

Julio de 2014
Dynamics of dikes versus cone sheets in volcanic systems
Authors:
Olivier Galland, Steffi Burchardt et al
Link: Click here

Igneous sheet intrusions of various shapes, such as dikes and cone sheets, coexist as parts of complex volcanic plumbing systems likely fed by common sources. How they form is fundamental regarding volcanic hazards, but yet no dynamic model simulates and predicts satisfactorily their diversity. Here we present scaled laboratory experiments that reproduced dikes and cone sheets under controlled conditions. Our models show that their formation is governed by a dimensionless ratio (?1), which describes the shape of the magma source, and a dynamic dimensionless ratio (?2), which compares the viscous stresses in the flowing magma to the

host-rock strength. Plotting our experiments against these two numbers results in a phase diagram evidencing a dike and a cone-sheet field, separated by a sharp transition that fits a power law. This result shows that dikes and cone sheets correspond to distinct physical regimes of magma emplacement in the crust. For a given host-rock strength, cone sheets preferentially form when the source is shallow, relative to its lateral extent, or when the magma influx velocity (or viscosity) is high. Conversely, dikes form when the source is deep compared to its size, or when magma influx rate (or viscosity) is low. Both dikes and cone sheets may form from the same source, the shift from one regime to the other being then controlled by magma dynamics, i.e., different values of ?2. The extrapolated empirical dike-to-cone sheet transition is in good agreement with the occurrence of dikes and cone sheets in various natural volcanic settings.

Julio de 2014
Multiple slow-slip events during a foreshock sequence of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.1 earthquake
Authors:
Aitaro Kato and Shigeki Nakagawa
Link: Click here

To obtain a precise record of the foreshock sequence before the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.1 earthquake, we applied a matched-filter technique to continuous seismograms recorded near the source region. We newly detected about 10 times the number of seismic events listed in the routinely constructed earthquake catalog, and identified multiple sequences of earthquake

migrations at speeds of 2-10?km/day, both along-strike and down-dip on the fault plane, up-dip of the mainshock area. In addition, we found out repeating earthquakes from the newly detected events, likely indicating aseismic slip along the plate boundary fault during the foreshock sequence. These observations suggest the occurrence of multiple slow-slip events up-dip of the mainshock area. The final slow-slip event migrated toward the mainshock nucleation point. We interpret that several parts of the plate boundary fault perhaps experienced slow slip, causing stress loading on the prospective largest slip patch of the mainshock rupture.

Julio de 2014
Mapping pressurized volcanic fluids from induced crustal seismic velocity drops
Authors:
F. Brenguier, M. Campillo et al
Link: Click here

To obtain a precise record of the foreshock sequence before the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.1 earthquake, we applied a matched-filter technique to continuous seismograms recorded near the source region. We newly detected about 10 times the number of seismic events listed in the routinely constructed earthquake catalog, and identified multiple sequences of earthquake

migrations at speeds of 2-10?km/day, both along-strike and down-dip on the fault plane, up-dip of the mainshock area. In addition, we found out repeating earthquakes from the newly detected events, likely indicating aseismic slip along the plate boundary fault during the foreshock sequence. These observations suggest the occurrence of multiple slow-slip events up-dip of the mainshock area. The final slow-slip event migrated toward the mainshock nucleation point. We interpret that several parts of the plate boundary fault perhaps experienced slow slip, causing stress loading on the prospective largest slip patch of the mainshock rupture.

Julio de 2014
What causes random earthquakes within a hydrothermal vent?
Author: Colin Schultz

Link: Click here

The Trans-Atlantic Geotraverse (TAG) is the

largest deep sea hydrothermal vent field found anywhere on the planet. Located on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, a seafloor spreading center where new oceanic crust is being created, the TAG field consists of one active high-temperature mound, one low-temperature mound, and seven inactive mounds.

Julio de 2014
Induced electromagnetic field by seismic waves in Earth's magnetic field
Authors:
Yongxin Gao,Xiaofei Chen et al
Link: Click here

Studied in this article are the properties of the electromagnetic (EM) fields generated by an earthquake due to the motional induction effect, which arises from the motion of the conducting crust across the Earth's magnetic field. By solving the governing equations that couple the elastodynamic equations with Maxwell equations, we derive the seismoelectromagnetic wavefields excited by a single-point force and a double-couple source in a full space. Two types of EM disturbances can be generated, i.e., the coseismic EM field accompanying the seismic wave and the independently propagating EM wave which arrives much earlier than the seismic wave. Simulation of an Mw6.1 earthquake shows that at a receiving location where the seismic

acceleration is on the order of 0.1?m/s2, the coseismic electric and magnetic fields are on the orders of 1??V/m and 0.1?nT, respectively, agreeing with the EM data observed in 2008 Mw6.1 Qingchuan earthquake, China, and indicating that the motional induction effect is effective enough to generate observable EM signal. We also simulated the EM signals observed by Haines et al. (2007) which were called the Lorentz fields and cannot be explained by the electrokinetic effect. The result shows that the EM wave generated by a horizontal force can explain the data well, suggesting that the motional induction effect is responsible for the Lorentz fields. The motional induction effect is compared with the electrokinetic effect, showing the overall conclusion that the former dominates the mechanoelectric conversion under low-frequency and high-conductivity conditions while the latter dominates under high-frequency and low-conductivity conditions.

Julio de 2014
A turbulent, high magnetic Reynolds number experimental model of Earth's core
Authors:
Daniel S. Zimmerman, Santiago Andrés Triana et al
Link: Click here

We present new experimental results from the University of Maryland Three Meter Geodynamo experiment. We drive a fully turbulent flow in water and also in sodium at magnetic Reynolds number Rm = ??(ro?ri)2/?, up to 715 (about half design maximum) in a spherical Couette apparatus geometrically similar to Earth's core. We have not yet observed a self-generating dynamo, but we study MHD effects with an externally applied axisymmetric magnetic field. We survey a broad range of Rossby number ?68 < Ro = ??/?o< 65 in both purely hydrodynamic water experiments and sodium experiments with weak, nearly passive

applied field. We characterize angular momentum transport and substantial generation of internal toroidal magnetic field (the ? effect) as a function of Ro and find a rich dependence of both angular momentum transport and ? effect on Ro. Internal azimuthal field generation peaks at Ro = 6 with a gain as high as 9 with weak applied field. At this Rossby number, we also perform experiments with significant Lorentz forces by increasing the applied magnetic field. We observe a reduction of the ? effect, a large increase in angular momentum transport, and the onset of new dynamical states. The state we reach at maximum applied field shows substantial magnetic field gain in the axial dipole moment, enhancing the applied dipole moment. This intermittent dipole enhancement must come from nonaxisymmetric flow and seems to be a geodynamo-style feedback involving differential rotation and large-scale drifting waves.

Julio de 2014
Three-dimensional Vp and Vp/Vs models in the Coso geothermal area, California: Seismic characterization of the magmatic system
Authors:
Qiong Zhang and Guoqing Lin
Link: Click here

We combine classic and state-of-the-art techniques to characterize the seismic and volcanic features in the Coso area in southern California. Seismic tomography inversions are carried out to map the variations of Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs beneath Coso. The velocities in the top layers of our model are correlated with the surface geological features. The Indian Wells Valley, with high silica content sediment strata, shows low-velocity anomalies up to 3 km depth, whereas the major mountain ranges, such as the south Sierra Nevada and the Argus Range, show higher velocities. The resulting three-dimensional velocity model is used to improve absolute

locations for all local events between January 1981 and August 2011 in our study area. We then apply similar-event cluster analysis, waveform cross correlation, and differential time relocation methods to improve relative event location accuracy. A dramatic sharpening of seismicity patterns is obtained after using these methods. We also estimate high-resolution near-source Vp/Vs ratio within each event cluster using the differential times from waveform cross correlation. The in situ Vp/Vs method confirms the trend of the velocity variations from the tomographic results. An anomalous low-velocity body with low Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs ratios, corresponding to the ductile behavior underlying the Coso geothermal field from 6 to 12 km depth, can be explained by the existence of frozen felsic magmatic materials with the inclusion of water. The material is not likely to include pervasive partial melt due to a lack of high Vp/Vs ratios.

Julio de 2014
Rupture process of the 2014 Iquique Chile Earthquake in relation with the foreshock activity
Authors:
Yuji Yagi, Ryo Okuwaki et al
Link: Click here

The rupture process of the 2014 Iquique, Chile earthquake is inverted from teleseismic P wave data applying a novel formulation that takes into account the uncertainty of Green's function, which has been a major error source in waveform inversion. The estimated seismic moment is 1.5?×?1021?Nm (Mw? =?8.1), associated with a 140?km long and 140?km wide fault rupture along the plate interface. The source process is

characterized by unilateral rupture propagation. During the first 20?s, the dynamic rupture front propagated from the hypocenter to the large asperity located about 50?km southward, crossing a remarkably active foreshock area at high velocity (of about 3.0?km/s), but small and irregular seismic moment release rate. Our result may suggest that the 20?s long initial phase was influenced by the stress drop due to the foreshock activity near the main shock hypocenter. Moreover, the 2?week long swarm-like foreshock activity migrating roughly at 5?km/day toward the main shock hypocenter, and possibly associated slow slip, contributed to the stress accumulation prior to the Mw 8.1 megaquake. The main shock initial rupture phase might have triggered the rupture of the large asperity, which had large fracture energy.

Julio de 2014
A simple inverse method for the interpretation of pumped flowing fluid electrical conductivity logs
Authors:
R.S. Moir, A.H. Parker et al
Link: Click here

Pumped flowing fluid electrical conductivity (FFEC) logs, also known as pumped borehole dilution testing is an experimentally easy-to-perform approach to evaluating vertical variations in the hydraulic conductivity of an aquifer. In contrast to the simplicity of the logging equipment, analysis of the data is complex and laborious. Current methods typically require repeated solution of the Advection-Dispersion Equation (ADE) for describing the flow in the borehole and comparison with the experimental results. In this

paper we describe a direct solution for borehole fluid velocity that bypasses the need for complex numerical computation and repetitive optimization. The method rests on the observation that, while solving the ADE for concentration profile in the borehole (as required for modeling and combined methods) is computationally challenging, the solution for flow distribution along the length of the borehole given concentration data is straightforward. The method can accommodate varying borehole diameters, and uses the fact that multiple profiles are taken in the standard logging approach to reduce the impact of noise. Data from both a simulated borehole and from a field test are successfully analyzed. The method is implemented in a spreadsheet, available as supplemental material to this paper.

Julio de 2014
Hydrochemical monitoring, petrological observation and geochemical modelling of fault healing after an earthquake
Authors:
Niklas Wästeby, Alasdair Skelton et al
Link: Click here

Based on hydrochemical monitoring, petrological observations and geochemical modelling, we identify a mechanism and estimate a timescale for fault healing after an earthquake. Hydrochemical monitoring of groundwater samples from an aquifer, which is at an approximate depth of 1200 meters, was conducted over a period of ten years. Groundwater samples have been taken from a borehole (HU-01) that crosses the Húsavík-Flatey Fault (HFF) near Húsavík town, northern Iceland. After ten weeks of sampling, on September 16, 2002, an M 5.8 earthquake occurred on the Grimsey Lineament (GL) which is approximately parallel to the HFF. This earthquake caused rupturing of a hydrological barrier resulting in an influx of

groundwater from a second aquifer, which was recorded by 15-20% concentration increases for some cations and anions. This was followed by hydrochemical recovery. Based on petrological observations of tectonically-exhumed fault rocks, we conclude that hydrochemical recovery recorded fault healing by precipitation of secondary minerals along fractures. Because hydrochemical recovery accelerated with time, we conclude that the growth rate of these minerals was controlled by reaction rates at mineral-water interfaces. Geochemical modelling confirmed that the secondary minerals which formed along fractures were saturated in the sampled groundwater. Fault healing and therefore hydrochemical recovery was periodically interrupted by re-fracturing events. Supported by field and petrographic evidence, we conclude that these events were caused by changes of fluid pressure probably coupled with earthquakes. These events became successively smaller as groundwater flux decreased with time. Despite re-fracturing, hydrochemical recovery reached completion 8-10 years after the earthquake.

Julio de 2014
Tsunami source and its validation of the 2014 Iquique, Chile, earthquake
Authors:
Chao An, Ignacio Sepúlveda et al
Link: Click here

The slip distribution of the 1 April 2014 Iquique earthquake is obtained by using the least squares inversion of tsunami data at three Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis stations. Most of the slip is concentrated along a 60 km by 40 km slip patch near the hypocenter, with magnitude ranging from 5 to 7 m and a depth of

23 km. The earthquake magnitude from the inversion is estimated as Mw8.0. The slip distribution is converted into seafloor displacement based on Okada's formula. A nonlinear shallow water equation model is used to simulate tsunami wave propagation, and the simulated water surface elevations are compared with the measured data at 10 tide gauges along the Chilean coast. The agreement is excellent at gauges where the local bathymetry data are complete and the gauges are open to the ocean; otherwise, mismatches of up to 10 min in arrival time and 1.0 m in amplitude are seen.

Julio de 2014
Induced electromagnetic field by seismic waves in Earth's magnetic field
Authors:
Yongxin Gao, Xiaofei Chen et al
Link: Click here

Studied in this article are the properties of the electromagnetic (EM) fields generated by an earthquake due to the motional induction effect, which arises from the motion of the conducting crust across the earth's magnetic field. By solving the governing equations that couple the elastodynamic equations with Maxwell equations, we derive the seismoelectromagnetic wavefields excited by a single point force and a double couple source in a full space. Two types of EM disturbances can be generated, i.e., the coseismic EM field accompanying the seismic wave and the independently propagating EM wave which arrives much earlier than the seismic wave. Simulation of an Mw6.1 earthquake shows that at

a receiving location where the seismic acceleration is on the order of 0.1?m/s2, the coseismic electric and magnetic fields are on the orders of 1 V/m and 0.1 nT, respectively, agreeing with the EM data observed in 2008 Mw6.1 Qingchuan earthquake, China, and indicating that the motional induction effect is effective enough to generate observable EM signal. We also simulated the EM signals observed by Haines et al. [2007] which were called the Lorentz fields and cannot be explained by the electrokinetic effect. The result shows that the EM wave generated by a horizontal force can explain the data well, suggesting that the motional induction effect is responsible for the Lorentz fields. The motional induction effect is compared with the electrokinetic effect, showing the overall conclusion that the former dominates the mechanoelectric conversion under low-frequency and high-conductivity conditions while the latter dominates under high-frequency and low-conductivity conditions.

Julio de 2014
Remotely triggered nonvolcanic tremor in Sumbawa, Indonesia.
Authors:
F. Fuchs, M. Lupi et al
Link: Click here

We present, for the first time, evidence for triggered tremor beneath the island of Sumbawa, Indonesia. We show triggered tremor in response to three teleseismic earthquakes: the Mw9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake and two oceanic strike-slip earthquakes (Mw 8.6 andMw8.2) offshore of Sumatra in 2012. We constrain an apparent

triggering threshold of 1 mm/s ground velocity that corresponds to about 8 kPa dynamic stress. Peak tremor amplitudes of about 180 nm/s are observed, and scale with the ground velocity induced by the remote earthquakes. Triggered tremor responds to 45-65 s period surface waves and predominantly correlates with Rayleigh waves, even though the 2012 oceanic events have stronger Love wave amplitudes. We could not locate the tremor because of minimal station coverage, but data indicate several potential source volumes including the Flores Thrust, the Java subduction zone, or Tambora volcano

Julio de 2014
3-D Seismic Surveys Explore German Petrothermal Reserves
Authors:
Ewald Lüschen and Rüdiger Schulz
Link: Click here

Three-dimensional (3-D) seismic reflection

techniques are now an indispensable tool for locating and characterizing sites for building geothermal power plants. The techniques not only work when imaging layered sediments but can also pinpoint geothermal sources in crystalline environments such as granite.

Julio de 2014
The 2010-2014 global earthquake rate increase
Authors:
Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist
Link: Click here

In light of a heightened global earthquake rate during the first quarter of 2014 and recent studies concluding that large earthquakes affect global seismicity for extended periods, we revisit the question whether the temporal distribution of global earthquakes shows clustering beyond that expected from a time-independent Poisson process. We examine a broad window from 1979

to 2014.3 for M 7.0 shocks, and a narrow window for M 5.0 seismicity since 2010 that has higher than average rates. We test whether a Poisson process can be falsified at 95% confidence to assess the degree of dependent clustering in the catalogs. If aftershocks within at least one rupture length from main shocks/foreshocks are filtered, then we find no evidence of global scale M 5.2-5.6 (depending on parameters) clustering since 2010 that demands a physical explanation. There is evidence for interdependence below this threshold that could be a consequence of catalog completeness or a physical process.

Julio de 2014
Tracing the effects of an enormous meteorite impact 3 billion years ago
Author: JoAnna Wendel

Link: Click here

The most well-known and popularized meteorite

impact occurred 65 million years ago and left behind the Chicxulub crater, a feature more than 110 miles in diameter. Dust kicked up by the impact, which lingered in the atmosphere for years, may have helped kill all the nonavian dinosaurs along with three quarters of the world's plant and animal species.

Julio de 2014
Multifaulting in a tectonic syntaxis revealed by InSAR: The case of the Ziarat earthquake sequence (Pakistan)
Authors:
B. Pinel-Puysségur, R. Grandin et al
Link: Click here

On 28-29 October 2008, within 12 h, two similar Mw?=?6.4 strike-slip earthquakes struck Baluchistan (Pakistan), as part of a complex seismic sequence. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data reveal that the peak of surface displacement is near the Ziarat anticline, a large active fold affected by Quaternary strike-slip faulting. All coseismic interferograms integrate the deformation due to both earthquakes. As their causative faults ruptured close to each other, the individual signals cannot be separated. According to their focal mechanisms, each earthquake may have activated a NE-SW sinistral or a NW-SE dextral fault segment, which leads to four possible

scenarios of fault orientations. A nonlinear inversion of the InSAR data set allows rejecting two scenarios. The best slip distributions on the two fault segments for the two remaining scenarios are determined by linear inversion. Stress-change modeling favors a scenario involving two abutting conjugate strike-slip faults. Two other fault segments accommodated left-lateral strike slip during the seismic sequence. The activated fault system includes multiple fault segments with different orientations and little surface expression. This may highlight, at a smaller scale, the distributed, possibly transient character of deformation within a broader right-lateral shear zone. It suggests that the activated faults delineate a small tectonic block extruding and subtly rotating within the shear zone. It occurs in the vicinity of the local tectonic syntaxis where orogenic structures sharply turn around a vertical axis. These mechanisms could participate in the long-term migration of active tectonic structures within this kinematically unstable tectonic syntaxis.

Julio de 2014
The 1 April 2014 Iquique, Chile, Mw 8.1 earthquake rupture sequence
Authors:
Thorne Lay, Han Yue et al
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On 1 April 2014, a great (Mw 8.1) interplate thrust earthquake ruptured in the northern portion of the 1877 earthquake seismic gap in northern Chile. The sequence commenced on 16 March 2014 with a magnitude 6.7 thrust event, followed by thrust-faulting aftershocks that migrated northward ~40 km over 2 weeks to near the main

shock hypocenter. Guided by short-period teleseismic P wave backprojections and inversion of deepwater tsunami wave recordings, a finite-fault inversion of teleseismic P and SH waves using a geometry consistent with long-period seismic waves resolves a spatially compact large-slip (~2-6.7 m) zone located ~30 km downdip and ~30?km along-strike south of the hypocenter, downdip of the foreshock sequence. The main shock seismic moment is 1.7?×?1021?N m with a fault dip of 18°, radiated seismic energy of 4.5-8.4 ×1016 J, and static stress drop of ~2.5 MPa. Most of the 1877 gap remains unbroken and hazardous.

Julio de 2014
Shaking up volcanoes
Authors:
Stephanie G. Prejean, Matthew M. Haney et al
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Most volcanic eruptions that occur shortly after a large distant earthquake do so by random chance. A few compelling cases for earthquake-triggered eruptions exist, particularly within 200 km of the earthquake, but this phenomenon is rare in part

because volcanoes must be poised to erupt in order to be triggered by an earthquake (1). Large earthquakes often perturb volcanoes in more subtle ways by triggering small earthquakes and changes in spring discharge and groundwater levels (1, 2). On page 80 of this issue, Brenguier et al. (3) provide fresh insight into the interaction of large earthquakes and volcanoes by documenting a temporary change in seismic velocity beneath volcanoes in Honshu, Japan, after the devastating Tohoku-Oki earthquake in 2011.

Junio de 2014
A dynamo explanation for Mercury's anomalous magnetic field
Authors:
Hao Cao, Jonathan M. Aurnou et al
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Recent MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) measurements have shown that Mercury's magnetic field is axial-dominant, yet strongly asymmetric with respect to the equator: the field strength in the Northern Hemisphere is approximately 3 times stronger than that in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we show that .convective dynamo models driven by volumetric buoyancy with north-south symmetric thermal

boundaries are capable of generating quasi-steady north-south asymmetric magnetic fields similar to Mercury's. This symmetry breaking is promoted and stabilized when the core-mantle boundary heat flux is higher at the equator than at high latitudes. The equatorially asymmetric magnetic field generation in our dynamo models corresponds to equatorially asymmetric kinetic helicity, which results from mutual excitation of two different modes of columnar convection. Our dynamo model can be tested by future assessment of Mercury's magnetic field from MESSENGER and BepiColombo as well as through investigations on Mercury's lower mantle temperature heterogeneity and buoyancy forcing in Mercury's core.

Junio de 2014
Simulation of the airwave caused by the Chelyabinsk superbolide
Authors:
1. Mikhail I. Avramenko, Igor V. Glazyrin et al
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Numerical simulations were carried out to model the propagation of an airwave from the fireball that passed over Chelyabinsk (Russia) on 15 February 2013. The airburst of the Chelyabinsk meteoroid occurred due to its catastrophic fragmentation in the atmosphere. Simulations of the space-time distribution of energy deposition during the airburst were done using a novel fragmentation model based on dimensionality considerations and analogy to the fission chain reaction in fissile materials. To get an estimate of the airburst energy, observed values of the airwave arrival times to different populated localities were retrieved from video records

available on the Internet. The calculated arrival times agree well with the observed values for all the localities. Energy deposition in the atmosphere obtained from observations of the airwave arrival times was found to be 460 ± 60 kt in trinitrotoluene (TNT) equivalent. We also obtained an independent estimate for the deposited energy, kt TNT from detecting the air increment velocity due to the wave passage in Chelyabinsk. Assuming that the energy of about 90 kt TNT was irradiated in the form of visible light and infrared radiation, as registered with optical sensors [Yeomans and Chodas, 2013], one can value the total energy release to be about 550 kt TNT which is in agreement with previous estimates from infrasound registration and from optical sensors data. The overpressure amplitude and its positive phase duration in the airwave that reached the city of Chelyabinsk were calculated to be about 2 kPa and 10 s accordingly.

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